Oldham
vs
Exeter City
League Two prediction
Our model says: Oldham 0–0 Exeter City
The model makes it 32% Oldham, 35% draw, 33% Exeter City — fair odds of 3.13, 2.86 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (20%).
Expected goals: Oldham 0.82, Exeter City 0.84.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Oldham and Exeter City are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Oldham's rating is built from 61 League Two matches and Exeter City's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Oldham are 20th on 15 points from 15 games; Exeter City are 8th on 22 points from 15 games — League Two.
- Oldham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Shrewsbury.
- Exeter City have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Cheltenham.
- Last 6 meetings: Exeter City 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 March 2022, ended Oldham 0–2 Exeter City.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oldham vs Exeter City
Has the model earned this number?
the draw at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oldham vs Exeter City
Oldham
League Two
- L1-2away to Shrewsbury14 November 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton3 November 2026
- L0-1Crawley Town31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
Exeter City
League Two
- W1-0Cheltenham14 November 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City31 October 2026
- W2-1Fleetwood Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Crewe20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
What these results say
- Oldham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Exeter City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
| 8 | Exeter City | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Oldham
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 6% today
Exeter City
Chance to finish in the top three · 12% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Oldham vs Exeter City
- 19 March 2022Oldham 0–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 13 November 2021Exeter City 2–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 23 March 2021Oldham 2–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 21 November 2020Exeter City 1–2 OldhamLeague Two
- 11 February 2020Exeter City 5–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 20 August 2019Oldham 0–0 Exeter CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Oldham and Exeter City
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oldham a 0% chance of the title and Exeter City 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Oldham v Exeter City has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 34% / 35% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 32% / 35% / 33%: the biggest move is Oldham's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Oldham win32%▼ −2
- Draw35%=
- Exeter City win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Oldham against 0.84 for Exeter City. Oldham's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.22 for Exeter City.
How the model reaches 35% for a draw
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 28% for a draw. Then home advantage changes nothing, the level of the two sides adds 7 points, Oldham's ratings take away 3 points and Exeter City's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground28%
- Home advantage28%±0
- Both sides at this match's level35%+7
- Oldham's ratings32%−3
- Exeter City's ratings35%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Oldham at home · Exeter City away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Oldham 15, Exeter City 15.
Oldham score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Exeter City have let in 0 there.
Exeter City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Oldham have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Oldham
- at Rotherham28 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Bristol Rovers1 Dec · League Twowin 45%
- vs Gillingham12 Dec · League Twowin 46%
- at Newport County19 Dec · League Twowin 32%
- vs York26 Dec · League Twowin 38%
Exeter City
- vs Crawley Town28 Nov · League Twowin 48%
- at Chesterfield1 Dec · League Twowin 29%
- vs Rochdale12 Dec · League Twowin 51%
- at Northampton19 Dec · League Twowin 30%
- vs Newport County26 Dec · League Twowin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.