28 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK Allsvenskan prediction & result

Stora Valla, Degerfors
Referee: Granit Maqedonci
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Degerfors IF 0-3 Vasteras SK FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Degerfors IF, 28% draw, 44% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasteras SK FK at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Degerfors IF0%Draw1%Vasteras SK FK99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Frédéric Nsabiyumvaassist: Mattias Hellisdal
🔁Karim Bouteraout: Arman Taranis
45'
Samba Diatara
54'
56'
⚽Axel Sountonoma Taonsaassist: Abdelrahman Saidi
🔁Samba Diataraout: gideon yaw yiriyon
57'
🔁Elias Barsoumout: Dijan Vukojevic
57'
61'
🔁Mattias Hellisdalout: karl gunnarsson
🔁Bilal Husseinout: Robin Dzabic
69'
🔁Sebastian Ohlssonout: Noel Milleskog
69'
87'
🔁Abdelrahman Saidiout: Bonaventure Lendambi
87'
🔁Herman·Magnussonout: Victor Wernersson
Ludvig Fritzson
90+1'
Daniel Sundgren
90+1'
90+5'
🔁jonathan karlssonout: Marcus Baggesen
90+5'
🔁Mamadou Diagneout: Jonathan Ring
90+7'
⚽Marcus Baggesenassist: Axel Sountonoma Taonsa

Match stats — Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK

49%Possession51%
17Shots15
2On target8
3Corners9
1.5xG1.58

Goals against chances

Degerfors IF0 from 1.50 xGless than the chances were worth
Vasteras SK FK3 from 1.58 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Degerfors IF 5-3-2
  • 38M. IgonenG
  • 6D. SundgrenD
  • 3Nikolai SkusethD
  • 2Ahmad FaqaD
  • 7S. OhlssonD
  • 18S. DiataraD
  • 22N. Girmai NetabayM
  • 8B. HusseinM
  • 20E. BarsoumM
  • 14L. FritzsonF
  • 9K. BouteraF
Substitutes
  • 21A. BerissonF
  • 23R. DzabicM
  • 1W. JakobssonG
  • 10N. MilleskogF
  • 15N. MoroD
  • 17Arman TaranisF
  • 11D. VukojevićF
  • 13M. HamiltonM
  • 28J. HernandezD
Coach: H. Goitom
Vasteras SK FK 3-4-3
  • 34E. JägerG
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 18F. NsabiyumvaD
  • 2H. MagnussonD
  • 11S. GefvertM
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 15J. KarlssonM
  • 19J. MagnussonF
  • 17A. TaonsaF
  • 7A. BoudahF
Substitutes
  • 3M. BaggesenD
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 5K. GunnarssonM
  • 16Bonaventure LendambiF
  • 14I. LushakuM
  • 10J. RingF
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 21V. WernerssonD
  • 23P. AmoranD
Coach: Alexander Rubin

Form going into Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK

Degerfors IF

Allsvenskan

  • L0-4away to BK Hacken24 October 2026
  • L1-2Kalmar FF19 October 2026

Vasteras SK FK

Allsvenskan

  • L1-2Halmstad23 October 2026
  • W1-0Mjallby AIF18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Degerfors IF2855182348-2520
6Vasteras SK FK2813694038+245

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK

  • 12 July 2026Vasteras SK FK 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 14 February 2026Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 March 2025Degerfors IF 1–0 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 July 2024Degerfors IF 3–1 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 March 2024Vasteras SK FK 0–0 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 March 2021Degerfors IF 3–4 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen

Leading scorers: Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK

Degerfors IF

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.

Vasteras SK FK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Taonsa102
  • M. Ladefoged92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vasteras SK FK won 3–0 at Degerfors IF. The model had made a win for Vasteras SK FK its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Frédéric Nsabiyumva 25' for Vasteras SK FK, Axel Sountonoma Taonsa 56' for Vasteras SK FK, Marcus Baggesen 90+7' for Vasteras SK FK. On expected goals it finished 1.50–1.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Degerfors IF a 45.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 26.4% after a win, 46.2% after a draw, 58.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.3%, 12.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Degerfors IF v Vasteras SK FK has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is Vasteras SK FK's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Degerfors IF win28%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Vasteras SK FK win44%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.