28 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Halmstad vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Orjans Vall, Halmstad
Referee: Kristoffer Karlsson
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Halmstad 0-3 Malmo FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Halmstad, 28% draw, 49% Malmo FF — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Malmo FF at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Halmstad0%Draw1%Malmo FF99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Jovan Milosavljevićassist: Stian Gregersen
12'
⚽Sead Hakšabanovićassist: Otto Rosengren
23'
🔁Stian Gregersenout: Bleon Kurtulus
58'
Theodor Lundbergh
60'
🔁Otto Rosengrenout: Mayckel Lahdo
60'
🔁Diego Garcíaout: Daniel Gudjohnsen
60'
🔁Jens Stryger Larsenout: Malte Vilhelm Frejd Pålsson
Rocco Ascone
66'
67'
⚽Daniel Gudjohnsenassist: Theodor Lundbergh
🔁Omar Farajout: Malte Persson
70'
🔁Ludvig Arvidssonout: Marvin Illary
70'
78'
🔁Theodor Lundberghout: Anders Christiansen
🔁Hussein Carneilout: Oliver Kapsimalis
80'
82'
Sead Hakšabanović

Match stats — Halmstad vs Malmo FF

43%Possession57%
18Shots8
5On target4
6Corners5
0.79xG1.13

Goals against chances

Halmstad0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth
Malmo FF3 from 1.13 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Halmstad 4-1-4-1
  • 1T. RönningG
  • 17A. BomanD
  • 5P. GregorD
  • 16E. TõugjasD
  • 24R. KaibD
  • 28T. TrybullM
  • 11L. ArvidssonM
  • 27R. AsconeM
  • 6J. AllanssonM
  • 14H. CarneilM
  • 9O. FarajF
Substitutes
  • 25A. Damnjanovic NilssonM
  • 22Oliver KapsimalisF
  • 8N. MäenpääM
  • 18Malte PerssonF
  • 4F. SchybergD
  • 3G. WallentinD
  • 35A. WihedG
  • 23A. ZeljkovicF
  • 19M. IllaryM
Coach: S. Baxter
Malmo FF 4-3-3
  • 1R. OlsenG
  • 17J. Stryger LarsenD
  • 5A. ĐurićD
  • 2S. GregersenD
  • 25BusanelloD
  • 37A. SkogmarM
  • 7O. RosengrenM
  • 47Theodor LundberghM
  • 28J. MilosavljevićF
  • 9Diego GarcíaF
  • 29S. HakšabanovićF
Substitutes
  • 27J. DahlinG
  • 6Y. KarabelyovM
  • 11E. EkongM
  • 44M. PålssonD
  • 32D. GuðjohnsenF
  • 42V. JeppssonM
  • 4B. KurtulusD
  • 10A. ChristiansenM
  • 15M. LahdoF
Coach: G. Helstrup

Form going into Halmstad vs Malmo FF

Halmstad

Allsvenskan

  • W2-1away to Vasteras SK FK23 October 2026
  • L0-1Hammarby FF18 October 2026

Malmo FF

Allsvenskan

  • D0-0away to IF Elfsborg23 October 2026
  • L0-1BK Hacken18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Halmstad2855182052-3220
7Malmo FF28125114236+641

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Halmstad vs Malmo FF

  • 30 May 2026Malmo FF 5–2 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 8 March 2026Malmo FF 2–1 HalmstadSvenska Cupen
  • 16 August 2025Halmstad 0–4 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 18 May 2025Malmo FF 3–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 10 August 2024Halmstad 0–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 7 July 2024Malmo FF 5–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Halmstad and Malmo FF

Halmstad

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Malmo FF won 3–0 at Halmstad. The model had made a win for Malmo FF its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jovan Milosavljević 4' for Malmo FF, Sead Hakšabanović 12' for Malmo FF, Daniel Gudjohnsen 67' for Malmo FF. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Halmstad a 94.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 86.9% after a win, 95.2% after a draw, 97.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.0%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Halmstad v Malmo FF has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 21% / 26% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 23% / 28% / 49%: the biggest move is Malmo FF's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Halmstad win23%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Malmo FF win49%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.