IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: IFK Goteborg 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% IFK Goteborg, 25% draw, 53% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Djurgardens IF at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12V. AnderssonG
- 4K. AckermannD
- 5J. BagerD
- 6H. HermannssonD
- 22Noah TolfD
- 11N. ŽugeljM
- 15D. KruseM
- 24O. ManssonM
- 14T. HeintzM
- 7Alexander Illum SimmelhackF
- 8S. LarssonF
- 25E. BishesariG
- 27A. BorénF
- 26E. FasthM
- 9M. FengerF
- 35N. LundenM
- 21L. RadakovicM
- 28I. SeiduD
- 23K. ÞórðarsonM
- 20G. ErsoyD
- 35J. RinneG
- 18A. StåhlD
- 5M. TenhoD
- 4J. Une-LarssonD
- 2P. JohanssonD
- 13D. StenssonM
- 20M. SiltanenM
- 14C. RosenquistM
- 16Bo Åsulv HeglandM
- 19J. OkkelsM
- 9K. LienF
- 8P. ÅslundM
- 11O. FalleniusF
- 6P. LanghoffM
- 24M. LarssonM
- 21M. MarquesD
- 27S. RingbergF
- 7Christos AlmyrasM
- 10Abdul AbdulmalikM
- 30Lukas Henrik JonssonG
Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan
- D1-1away to Gais25 October 2026
- D2-2away to AIK Stockholm17 October 2026
Djurgardens IF
Allsvenskan
- D2-2Orgryte IS24 October 2026
- W2-0away to IF Brommapojkarna16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | IFK Goteborg | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 39 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 27 | +29 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF
- 4 May 2026Djurgardens IF 6–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 2 November 2025Djurgardens IF 0–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 12 May 2025IFK Goteborg 1–2 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 2 March 2025Djurgardens IF 3–4 IFK GoteborgSvenska Cupen
- 4 August 2024Djurgardens IF 1–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 1 April 2024IFK Goteborg 1–4 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF
IFK Goteborg
GoalsAssists
- S. Larsson83
Djurgardens IF
GoalsAssists
- K. Lien166
- Bo Åsulv Hegland1116
- C. Rosenquist81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Djurgardens IF at 53% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nino Žugelj 39' for IFK Goteborg, Bo Åsulv Hegland 59' for Djurgardens IF. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.83.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Djurgardens IF a 89.0% chance to finish in the top three: 93.6% after a win, 85.6% after a draw, 80.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 85.6%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IF has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 21% / 24% / 55% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 22% / 25% / 53%: the biggest move is Djurgardens IF's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- IFK Goteborg win22%▲ +1
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Djurgardens IF win53%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.