Regular Season - 9 · 16 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result

Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Spartak Moscow 1-0 Fakel.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Spartak Moscow, 29% draw, 21% Fakel — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.70, Fakel 0.71.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

42%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 15%2-0 13%1-1 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Spartak Moscow at 50% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Moscow7%Draw91%Fakel2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
🔁Maksim Turishchevout: Hodaifa El Mhassani
59'
Matvey Bardachev
🔁Mirlind Dakuout: Esequiel Barco
61'
🔁Marquinhosout: Igor Dmitriev
61'
64'
🔁Anton Kovalevout: Belajdi Pusi
64'
🔁Aleksandr Koksharovout: Nikolay Giorgobiani
66'
Albert Gabaraev
66'
Matvey Bardachev
🔁Daniil Denisovout: Danil Prutsev
75'
79'
🔁Butta Magomedovout: Axel Gnapi
79'
🔁Darko Todorovicout: Yuriy Zhuravlev
86'
Nikolay Giorgobiani
⚽Manfred Ugalde
90+1'

Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

75%Possession25%
26Shots2
5On target1
11Corners2

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 6S. BabićD
  • 47R. ZobninD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 83Gedson FernandesM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 19M. DakuM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 62P. PolekhF
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 27I. DmitrievM
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 24Nikita MassalygaM
  • 17V. SausM
  • 40I. SorokinM
Coach: Carcedo
Fakel 3-4-3
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 17A. KovalevM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 55D. TodorovićM
  • 7M. TurishchevF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
  • 97B. MagomedovF
Substitutes
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 99N. GiorgobianiM
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 19B. PusiF
  • 11A. SutorminM
  • 20I. YurganovD
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko

Form going into Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

Spartak Moscow

  • W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
  • D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
  • W2-0Zenit23 August 2026

Fakel

  • D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
  • L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
  • D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Spartak Moscow9612167+919
16Fakel9036613-73

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel

  • 4 May 2025Fakel 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 18 August 2024Spartak Moscow 3–0 FakelPremier League
  • 10 March 2024Spartak Moscow 0–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 28 October 2023Fakel Voronezh 2–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Spartak Moscow 3–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 19 October 2022Fakel Voronezh 1–2 Spartak MoscowCup

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.70 goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.71 for Fakel; the game produced 1 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Manfred Ugalde 90' (Spartak Moscow).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Spartak Moscow the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Spartak Moscow against 0.71 for Fakel. Spartak Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.94 for Fakel.