Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Moscow 1-0 Fakel.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Spartak Moscow, 28% draw, 23% Fakel — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Spartak Moscow at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs Fakel
Line-ups
- 98A. MaksimenkoG
- 97D. DenisovD
- 4A. DjikuD
- 6S. BabićD
- 47R. ZobninD
- 18N. UmyarovM
- 83Gedson FernandesM
- 7P. SolariM
- 19M. DakuM
- 10MarquinhosM
- 9M. UgaldeF
- 62P. PolekhF
- 5E. BarcoM
- 25D. PrutsevM
- 1I. PomazunG
- 27I. DmitrievM
- 56A. DovbnyaG
- 24Nikita MassalygaM
- 17V. SausM
- 40I. SorokinM
- 1D. FrolkinG
- 5A. GabaraevD
- 40ClaytonD
- 53M. BardachevD
- 17A. KovalevM
- 52R. NetfullinM
- 23V. YakimovM
- 55D. TodorovićM
- 7M. TurishchevF
- 90A. KoksharovF
- 97B. MagomedovF
- 8A. BagamaevM
- 35V. DorovskikhG
- 22H. El MahasniD
- 99N. GiorgobianiM
- 9A. Gnapi DableF
- 96I. ObukhovG
- 19B. PusiF
- 11A. SutorminM
- 20I. YurganovD
Form going into Spartak Moscow vs Fakel
Spartak Moscow
All competitions we cover
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Baltika16 August 2026
Fakel
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
- L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
- D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026
- L0-1away to CSKA Moscow15 August 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fakel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fakel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 16 | Fakel | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs Fakel
- 4 May 2025Fakel 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 18 August 2024Spartak Moscow 3–0 FakelPremier League
- 10 March 2024Spartak Moscow 0–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 28 October 2023Fakel Voronezh 2–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 11 March 2023Spartak Moscow 3–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and Fakel
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Ugalde60
- M. Daku51
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spartak Moscow beat Fakel 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Spartak Moscow at 49%. The goal: Manfred Ugalde 90+1' for Spartak Moscow. Sent off: Matvey Bardachev (Fakel) 66'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.