Puebla
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 0-1 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Puebla, 30% draw, 31% Toluca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puebla 1.37, Toluca 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Puebla vs Toluca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puebla at 39% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Toluca
Line-ups
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 20J. PachucaD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 21S. SanabriaM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 22C. BaltazarM
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 12I. MorenoM
- 8O. MorenoF
- 16A. RamírezM
- 25H. JuradoF
- 14E. ArmentaM
- 3A. HerreraM
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 4B. MéndezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. LópezD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 8N. CastroM
- 16F. ViñasM
- 10J. AnguloM
- 20J. GallardoM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 23O. VirgenF
- 7V. GuzmánM
- 15P. PérezM
- 11HelinhoF
- 3A. BriseñoD
- 184S. AcevesM
- 24F. ArceM
- 12R. BeltránG
- 29J. DíazM
Form going into Puebla vs Toluca
Puebla
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
Toluca
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Puebla | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 1 | Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Toluca
- 16 September 2026Puebla 0–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 31 January 2026Puebla 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 14 September 2025Toluca 3–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 15 March 2025Puebla 0–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 23 October 2024Toluca 5–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 27 January 2024Puebla 1–1 TolucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Toluca
Puebla
- E. Mustre3 goals1 assists
Toluca
- F. Viñas3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.37 goals for Puebla and 1.11 for Toluca; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: José Pachuca 69' (Toluca).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puebla the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Puebla against 1.11 for Toluca. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.24 for Toluca.