Regular Season - 9 · 16 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Rodina Moskva vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

Arena Khimki, Khimki
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Rodina Moskva 1-1 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Rodina Moskva, 30% draw, 34% Rubin — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Rodina Moskva 1.27, Rubin 1.21.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin

51%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%1-0 10%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rodina Moskva at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rodina Moskva4%Draw92%Rubin4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Brian Mansilla
30'
41'
Veldin Hodza
50'
Ilya Rozhkov
Leon Musaev
50'
🔁Brian Mansillaout: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov
57'
🔁Yordy Reynaout: Artem Maksimenko
58'
59'
Jacques Siwe
64'
🔁Jacques Siweout: Daniil Kuznetsov
65'
🔁Veldin Hodzaout: Nikita Lobov
65'
🔁Bogdan Jočićout: Ignacio Saavedra
72'
🔁Ilya Rozhkovout: Egor Teslenko
🔁German Onugkhaout: Ivan Timoshenko
72'
⚽Deiver Machadoassist: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov
79'
🔁Stanislav Bessmertniyout: Artem Sokol
80'
80'
🔁Denil Maldonadoout: Ulvi Babaev
🔁Leon Musaevout: Ruslan Fishchenko
81'
82'
⚽Anderson Arroyoassist: Igor Vujacic

Match stats — Rodina Moskva vs Rubin

56%Possession44%
14Shots8
4On target4
10Corners4

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva 3-4-3
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 26A. MeshchaninovD
  • 50Rodrigo BecãoD
  • 75M. NadéD
  • 80S. BessmertnyM
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 38L. MusaevM
  • 20D. MachadoM
  • 11B. MansillaF
  • 7G. OnugkhaF
  • 10Y. ReynaF
Substitutes
  • 1S. AydarovG
  • 18M. AbdusalamovF
  • 95K. CissokoF
  • 49I. DyatlovD
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
  • 77A. GharibyanF
  • 55M. KrižanD
  • 9A. MaksimenkoF
  • 88A. SokolD
Coach: Juan Díaz
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 71I. SamoshnikovM
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 8B. JočićM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 4K. NizhegorodovD
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 59D. N. MotorinF
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 44D. KuznetsovM
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 18M. IgnatjevD
Coach: Franc Artiga

Form going into Rodina Moskva vs Rubin

Rodina Moskva

  • L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
  • L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026

Rubin

  • D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
  • D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
  • W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Rodina Moskva91261022-125
6Rubin92611211+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin

  • 4 August 2026Rodina Moskva 5–0 RubinCup
  • 22 February 2024Rubin 1–4 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 June 2023Rodina Moskva 0–0 RubinFirst League
  • 17 July 2022Rubin 2–0 Rodina MoskvaFirst League

Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and Rubin

Rodina Moskva

  • A. Maksimenko3 goals1 assists
  • Iker Pozo2 goals1 assists

Rubin

  • J. Siwe3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.27 goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.21 for Rubin; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Deiver Machado 79' (Rodina Moskva), Anderson Arroyo 82' (Rubin).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rodina Moskva the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Rodina Moskva against 1.21 for Rubin. Rodina Moskva's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.7 for Rubin.