16 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Rodina Moskva vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

Arena Khimki, Khimki
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Rodina Moskva 1-1 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Rodina Moskva, 29% draw, 36% Rubin — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rubin at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rodina Moskva4%Draw92%Rubin4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Brian Mansilla
30'
41'
Veldin Hodza
50'
Ilya Rozhkov
Leon Musaev
50'
🔁Brian Mansillaout: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov
57'
🔁Yordy Reynaout: Artem Maksimenko
58'
59'
Jacques Siwe
64'
🔁Jacques Siweout: Daniil Kuznetsov
65'
🔁Veldin Hodzaout: Nikita Lobov
65'
🔁Bogdan Jočićout: Ignacio Saavedra
72'
🔁Ilya Rozhkovout: Egor Teslenko
🔁German Onugkhaout: Ivan Timoshenko
72'
⚽Deiver Machadoassist: Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov
79'
🔁Stanislav Bessmertniyout: Artem Sokol
80'
80'
🔁Denil Maldonadoout: Ulvi Babaev
🔁Leon Musaevout: Ruslan Fishchenko
81'
82'
⚽Anderson Arroyoassist: Igor Vujacic

Match stats — Rodina Moskva vs Rubin

56%Possession44%
14Shots8
4On target4
10Corners4

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva 3-4-3
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 26A. MeshchaninovD
  • 50Rodrigo BecãoD
  • 75M. NadéD
  • 80S. BessmertnyM
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 38L. MusaevM
  • 20D. MachadoM
  • 11B. MansillaF
  • 7G. OnugkhaF
  • 10Y. ReynaF
Substitutes
  • 1S. AydarovG
  • 18M. AbdusalamovF
  • 95K. CissokoF
  • 49I. DyatlovD
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
  • 77A. GharibyanF
  • 55M. KrižanD
  • 9A. MaksimenkoF
  • 88A. SokolD
Coach: Juan Díaz
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 71I. SamoshnikovM
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 8B. JočićM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 4K. NizhegorodovD
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 59D. N. MotorinF
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 44D. KuznetsovM
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 18M. IgnatjevD
Coach: Franc Artiga

Form going into Rodina Moskva vs Rubin

Rodina Moskva

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
  • L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Dynamo23 August 2026
  • D3-3Akron15 August 2026

Rubin

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
  • D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
  • W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Baltika24 August 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Rostov15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Rodina Moskva did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rodina Moskva had three goals or more.
  • Rubin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Rubin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Rodina Moskva143381529-1412
8Rubin144641418-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin

  • 4 August 2026Rodina Moskva 5–0 RubinCup
  • 22 February 2024Rubin 1–4 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 June 2023Rodina Moskva 0–0 RubinFirst League
  • 17 July 2022Rubin 2–0 Rodina MoskvaFirst League

Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and Rubin

Rodina Moskva

GoalsAssists

  • A. Maksimenko31

Rubin

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rodina Moskva and Rubin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rubin at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Deiver Machado 79' for Rodina Moskva, Anderson Arroyo 82' for Rubin.

How the call on Rodina Moskva v Rubin has moved

First published on 2 Sep at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, up 3 points.

  1. Rodina Moskva win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▲ +3
  3. Rubin win36%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.