Regular Season - 5 · 15 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Al Masry vs Al Ittihad Alexandria Premier League prediction & result

Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria
Full time0 2

Final score: Al Masry 0-2 Al Ittihad Alexandria.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Al Masry, 30% draw, 34% Al Ittihad Alexandria — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Al Masry 1.36, Al Ittihad Alexandria 1.27.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Al Masry vs Al Ittihad Alexandria

54%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 9%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al Masry at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Youssef El Gohary
9'
Mostafa Al Aash
43'
45'
🔁Kenneth Semakulaout: Mahmoud Emad
45'
🔁Pascal Phiriout: Nour Alaa
🔁Youssef El Goharyout: Abdellah Ziani
45'
58'
Baher El Mohamady (OG)
65'
🔁Hossam Hassanout: John Okoye Ebuka
70'
🔁Mohamed Toniout: Mohamed Fakhri
🔁Ali Suliemanout: Mohamed El Shamy
74'
Karim El Eraki
76'
81'
🔁Joseph Arumalaout: Youssry Wahid
🔁Mahmoud Hamadaout: Karim Bambo
84'
🔁Salah Mohsenout: Ahmed El Armouty
89'
90+5'
John Okoye Ebuka

Match stats — Al Masry vs Al Ittihad Alexandria

62%Possession38%
16Shots9
5On target4
12Corners2

Line-ups

Al Masry 4-4-2
  • 16Mahmoud HamdyG
  • 7Karim El ErakiD
  • 2B. El MohamadyD
  • 33Mostafa Al AashD
  • 3Mohamed ShokryD
  • 30A. DeghmoumM
  • 6Mohamed MakhloufM
  • 14Mahmoud HamadaM
  • 21A. SuliemanM
  • 17Youssef El GoharyF
  • 9Salah MohsenF
Substitutes
  • 4Yassin El MallahM
  • 11Mohamed El ShamyF
  • 15Ahmed El ArmoutyM
  • 18A. SawaftaM
  • 1Essam TharwatG
  • 20K. ToualM
  • 10Karim BamboF
  • 5Khaled SobhyD
  • 27A. ZianiM
Coach: Ahmed Samy
Al Ittihad Alexandria 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sobhi SolimanG
  • 24Momen AwadD
  • 7Mohamed Mostafa MidoD
  • 5Mostafa IbrahimD
  • 30K. MosaadD
  • 44K. SemakulaM
  • 8Mohamed ToniM
  • 35Pascal PhiriM
  • 23I. SaviourM
  • 80Joseph ArumalaM
  • 10Hossam HassanF
Substitutes
  • 14Mohamed FakhryM
  • 18J. EbukaF
  • 11Youssry WahidF
  • 21Ahmed HamdiM
  • 25Mahmoud EmadM
  • 16Ahmed El ArabiG
  • 22Nour AlaaM
  • 4Islam AbdallahD
  • 12Momen SherifD
Coach: Hamza El Gamal

Form going into Al Masry vs Al Ittihad Alexandria

Al Masry

  • L1-2away to Petrojet7 September 2026
  • L0-1Pyramids FC31 August 2026
  • W3-2away to El Mokawloon27 August 2026
  • W1-0Smouha SC22 August 2026

Al Ittihad Alexandria

  • W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Abu Qair Semad2 September 2026
  • L1-3Ceramica Cleopatra28 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Zamalek SC21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Al Masry520357-26
6Al Ittihad Alexandria531163+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Masry vs Al Ittihad Alexandria

  • 15 September 2026Al Masry 0–2 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 11 December 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–0 Al MasryLeague Cup
  • 8 August 2025Al Masry 3–1 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 8 February 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–2 Al MasryPremier League
  • 18 August 2024Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–2 Al MasryPremier League
  • 4 April 2024Al Masry 2–3 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League

Leading scorers: Al Masry and Al Ittihad Alexandria

Al Masry

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Al Ittihad Alexandria

  • Hossam Hassan2 goals
  • J. Ebuka1 goals1 assists
  • Nour Alaa1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.36 goals for Al Masry and 1.27 for Al Ittihad Alexandria; the game produced 0 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Baher El Mohamady 58' (Al Ittihad Alexandria), John Okoye Ebuka 90' (Al Ittihad Alexandria).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al Masry the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Masry against 1.27 for Al Ittihad Alexandria. Al Masry's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.64 for Al Ittihad Alexandria.