Karmiotissa vs Olympiakos 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Karmiotissa 1-0 Olympiakos.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Karmiotissa, 27% draw, 49% Olympiakos — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Olympiakos at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Karmiotissa vs Olympiakos
Line-ups
- 4S. DembéléD
- 1N. GiannakopoulosG
- 26X. TabakuM
- 10D. A. ReynoldsM
- 21P. PsychasM
- 9Patrick LuanF
- 42N. OuammouD
- 20Marios KokkinoftasM
- 33Julio CesarD
- 8C. YebliM
- 22Ruben GarciaD
- 18A. ViolarisG
- 6C. WheelerD
- 30M. TheocharousM
- 97Angelos ArgyriouD
- 7M. BajunovicM
- 23Alexandre KutateladzeM
- 17Theodosis kyprouF
- 34Jael PawaridihadjoF
- 99D. PriniotakiG
- 1C. TalichmanidisG
- 21Constantinos christouM
- 2C. FrantzisD
- 12Jean FelipeD
- 5Eduardo KundeD
- 26P. KynigopoulosF
- 23M. PechlivanisF
- 10D. ProkopM
- 9Zannetos SavvaF
- 24M. TamásD
- 77A. VrikkisM
- 11A. LolisF
- 32M. KyriakouG
- 31georgios kitsiosD
- 29K. IrakleousF
- 14Konstantinos EliaF
- 4A. DoumasD
- 20georgios tziortzisM
- 22Marios Praxitelous Al HerekD
Form going into Karmiotissa vs Olympiakos
Karmiotissa
1. Division
- L0-5Apollon Limassol25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Krasava Ypsonas17 October 2026
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026
Olympiakos
1. Division
- D1-1Krasava Ypsonas24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Omonia Nicosia19 October 2026
- L1-2Aris11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 6 |
| 9 | Olympiakos | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Karmiotissa vs Olympiakos
- 25 October 2023Olympiakos 4–1 KarmiotissaCup
- 8 May 2023Olympiakos 1–2 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 1 April 2023Karmiotissa 0–2 Olympiakos1. Division
- 9 January 2023Olympiakos 0–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 3 October 2022Karmiotissa 1–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 31 July 2021Karmiotissa 1–4 OlympiakosFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Karmiotissa and Olympiakos
Karmiotissa
GoalsAssists
- Patrick Luan11
Olympiakos
GoalsAssists
- Zannetos Savva22
- Jean Felipe11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Karmiotissa beat Olympiakos 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Olympiakos at 49% and given a win for Karmiotissa 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Alastair Reynolds 9' for Karmiotissa.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Karmiotissa a 91.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 86.5% after a win, 91.8% after a draw, 93.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.5%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
For Olympiakos the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 17.1% going in: 20.2% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.8%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Karmiotissa v Olympiakos has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 24% / 27% / 49%: the biggest move is Olympiakos's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- Karmiotissa win24%▼ −8
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Olympiakos win49%▲ +10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.