Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Fayha 4-1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Al-Fayha, 27% draw, 35% Al-Faisaly FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Al-Fayha at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 52O. MosqueraG
- 22Mohammed Al BaqawiD
- 21Ziyad Al SahafiD
- 25O. ColleyD
- 12Turki Al JaadiD
- 40Yago SantanaM
- 30Alfa SemedoM
- 6Ali Al HussainM
- 5Hugo MouraM
- 23JasonF
- 10F. SakalaF
- 77R. EnadF
- 47Mohammed Al DowaishD
- 14Mansor Al BesheM
- 9Malek Al AbdulmanamF
- 1Abdulraoof Al-DeqeelG
- 7Nawaf Al-HarthiM
- 2Mukhir Al RashidiD
- 43Fahad Majed AlhubayshiM
- 17LázaroF
- 1Fernando PachecoG
- 87A. BaD
- 4A. SeckD
- 5Andrei GirottoD
- 2Yaseen BarnawiM
- 8FlávioM
- 14Abdullah AlmuqrinM
- 18Abdulrahman Al SafariM
- 10T. BongondaF
- 19Alexandre MendyF
- 24Abdulaziz Al BishiF
- 26Mohammed Al HasawiG
- 6Eid Al MuwalladM
- 77A. Al ShereafM
- 11A. EllaF
- 88Saud HaddadD
- 70Mohammed JahfaliD
- 20Jaime SeoaneM
- 47Faisal Mohammed Ibrahim Al FahadF
- 16Mohammed Sadun Al ShammariD
Form going into Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Fayha
Pro League
- D2-2away to Al-Hazm22 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Ahli Jeddah19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Khaleej Saihat15 October 2026
- D1-1Al Riyadh11 October 2026
Al-Faisaly FC
Pro League
- W1-0away to Abha27 October 2026
- L1-3Al-Nassr23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al Shabab19 October 2026
- W3-2Al Kholood15 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fayha did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Al-Fayha conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Fayha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al-Faisaly FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Faisaly FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Al-Faisaly FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC
- 10 February 2022Al-Fayha 0–0 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
- 16 September 2021Al-Faisaly FC 2–1 Al-FayhaPro League
- 1 February 2020Al-Fayha 2–1 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
- 24 August 2019Al-Faisaly FC 0–0 Al-FayhaPro League
- 20 April 2019Al-Fayha 3–4 Al-Faisaly FCPro League
- 27 December 2018Al-Faisaly FC 1–0 Al-FayhaPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Fayha and Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Fayha
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Al-Faisaly FC
GoalsAssists
- Alexandre Mendy51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Fayha beat Al-Faisaly FC 4–1. The model had made a win for Al-Fayha its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Abdulrahman Al Safari 30' for Al-Faisaly FC, Fashion Sakala 43' for Al-Fayha, Ziyad Al-Sahafi 57' for Al-Fayha, Jason Remeseiro 66' for Al-Fayha, Hugo Moura 90+1' for Al-Fayha. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Fayha a 29.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.6% after a win, 30.6% after a draw, 36.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.6%, 8 points lower than before the match.
For Al-Faisaly FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.7% going in: 9.3% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.