31 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh Pro League prediction & result

Kingdom Arena, Riyadh
Referee: Ivan Barton
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Al-Hilal 2-0 Al-Fateh.

Before kick-off the model made it 78% Al-Hilal, 14% draw, 8% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 1.28, 7.14 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Hilal at 78%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Hilal98%Draw2%Al-Fateh0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Marwane Saadane
⚽Ollie Watkins
12'
43'
•Lukáš Haraslín
•Crysencio Summerville
45+4'
48'
Lukáš Haraslín
Rúben Neves
74'
75'
Kennedy Boateng
75'
🔁Lukáš Haraslínout: Faisal Abdulwahed
75'
🔁Abdulelah Al Khaibariout: Montadhar Al Shqaq
🔁Nasser Al-Dawsariout: Mohamed Kanno
81'
82'
🔁Wilfried Kangaout: Saad Al-Shurafa
•Sergej Milinković-Savić
88'
⚽Rúben Neves (pen)
90+1'
90+2'
🔁Zaydou Youssoufout: Abdul Aziz Al-Fawaz
90+2'
🔁Mourad Batnaout: Fahad Al Zubaidi
🔁Rúben Nevesout: Murad Al Hawsawi
90+2'
🔁Sultan Mandashout: Sabri Dahal
90+2'
🔁Ollie Watkinsout: Mohamed Kader Meïté
90+2'
🔁Hassan Al-Tambaktiout: Ali Lajami
90+2'

Match stats — Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh

68%Possession32%
23Shots4
6On target0
13Corners2
3.63xG0.28

Goals against chances

Al-Hilal2 from 3.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Fateh0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Hilal 4-4-2
  • 37Y. BounouG
  • 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
  • 87Hassan TambaktiD
  • 3K. KoulibalyD
  • 19T. HernándezD
  • 22S. Milinković-SavićM
  • 8Rúben NevesM
  • 6Nasser Al DawsariM
  • 38C. SummervilleM
  • 27Sultan MandashF
  • 11O. WatkinsF
Substitutes
  • 72S. DahalF
  • 28Mohamed KannoM
  • 78Ali LajamiD
  • 75M. MeïtéF
  • 96Suhayb Al ZaidM
  • 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
  • 18Murad Al HawsawiM
  • 24Moteb Al HarbiD
  • 77Nawaf Al HabashiM
Coach: S. Inzaghi
Al-Fateh 5-4-1
  • 1A. ŠemperG
  • 8M. LixandruD
  • 3K. BoatengD
  • 17M. SaâdaneD
  • 78Abdulaziz Al SuwailemD
  • 16Abdulelah Al KhaibariD
  • 11M. BatnaM
  • 28Z. YoussoufM
  • 6Ali Al HassanM
  • 10L. HaraslínM
  • 9W. KangaF
Substitutes
  • 25M. Al SahihiM
  • 7Fahad Al ZubaidiF
  • 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
  • 94Waleed Al AnziG
  • 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
  • 49Saad Al SharfaF
  • 19R. KelderD
  • 22Abdul Rahman Al KhaibariD
  • 63Montadhar Al ShqaqD
Coach: J. Sellami

Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh

Al-Hilal

Pro League

  • W3-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC23 October 2026
  • W1-0Al-Hazm19 October 2026
  • W3-2Al-Ittihad10 October 2026
  • W6-0away to Al Taawon12 September 2026

Al-Fateh

Pro League

  • L1-3Al Shabab22 October 2026
  • L2-3Al Khaleej Saihat18 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
  • L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Hilal won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Hilal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Al-Hilal had three goals or more.
  • Al-Fateh conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
  • Al-Fateh failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Al-Hilal111001329+2330
16Al-Fateh121381025-156

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh

  • 14 March 2026Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-HilalPro League
  • 29 November 2025Al-Hilal 4–1 Al-FatehKing's Cup
  • 22 November 2025Al-Hilal 2–1 Al-FatehPro League
  • 16 May 2025Al-Fateh 3–4 Al-HilalPro League
  • 16 January 2025Al-Hilal 9–0 Al-FatehPro League
  • 26 April 2024Al-Hilal 3–1 Al-FatehPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Fateh

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Martinelli60
  • O. Watkins55
  • Rúben Neves53

Al-Fateh

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Hilal beat Al-Fateh 2–0. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 78%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Ollie Watkins 12' for Al-Hilal, Rúben Neves (penalty) 90+1' for Al-Hilal. On expected goals it finished 3.63–0.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Hilal these chances to win the league: 60.2% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 46.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 60.2%.

For Al-Fateh the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 48.9% going in: 34.2% after a win, 46.5% after a draw, 50.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.2%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.