31 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq Pro League prediction & result

Al Taawon Arena, Buraidah
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Al Taawon, 28% draw, 43% Al-Ettifaq — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ettifaq at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Taawon95%Draw5%Al-Ettifaq0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Parfait Guiagon
18'
21'
Jack Hendry
•Abderrazak Hamdallah
21'
⚽Abderrazak Hamdallah (pen)
26'
32'
Ondrej Duda
37'
🔁Khalid Al-Ghannamout: Álvaro Medrán
45'
🔁Madallah Al-Olayanout: Meshal Al-Aeli
Abderrazak Hamdallah
51'
🔁Parfait Guiagonout: Younes El Bahraoui
62'
🔁Nedim Bajramiout: Mohammed Al-Aqel
62'
68'
Abdoulaye Kanté
70'
🔁Ondrej Dudaout: Abdalellah Hawsawi
70'
🔁Sultan Ali Huranout: Ziyad Abdullah Al-Ghamdi
81'
🔁Jordan Larssonout: Yasir Al-Shammari
🔁Nasser Al-Haleelout: Abdulrahman Al Harbi
82'
🔁Mohammed Al Saediout: Awn Al-Saluli
82'
🔁Faris Al-Ghamdiout: Adel Sami Fallatah
83'
90'
⚽Abdullah Al-Khateebassist: Bersant Celina
90+1'
Abdalellah Hawsawi

Match stats — Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq

35%Possession65%
5Shots16
2On target5
1Corners10
1.38xG1.68

Goals against chances

Al Taawon1 from 1.38 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al-Ettifaq1 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Taawon 5-4-1
  • 1MailsonG
  • 45Mohammed Al SaediD
  • 4Nasser Al HaleelD
  • 5Z. BelaïdD
  • 40Ibrahim MahnashiD
  • 88M. PetkovD
  • 8P. GuiagonM
  • 16Faris Al GhamdiM
  • 18A. El MahdiouiM
  • 10N. BajramiM
  • 9A. Hamed AllahF
Substitutes
  • 63Adel Sami FallatahM
  • 87Ali Ahmed Ali Halawi SharahiliD
  • 17Mohammed Al AqelF
  • 47Y. El BahraouiF
  • 20Bassem Al-AriniF
  • 31Abdulrahman Al HarbiF
  • 43Nawaf Mazen Al HawairyD
  • 30Abdullah Al JadaniG
  • 93Awn Al SaluliD
Coach: V. Rašović
Al-Ettifaq 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. RodákG
  • 70Abdullah KhateebD
  • 5Pedro HenriqueD
  • 4J. HendryD
  • 33Madallah Al OlayanD
  • 42A. KantéM
  • 11O. DudaM
  • 17J. LarssonM
  • 43B. CelinaM
  • 7Khalid Al GhannamM
  • 99Sultan Ali HuranF
Substitutes
  • 78Marzouq TambaktiD
  • 13Meshal Al AlaeliD
  • 29Z. Al GhamdiF
  • 92Turki Ba Al JawshG
  • 77AbdulelahM
  • 3Abdullah MaduD
  • 10Álvaro MedránM
  • 58Yasir ShammariM
  • 26Riyadh SharahiliM
Coach: Arthur Papas

Form going into Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq

Al Taawon

Pro League

  • L1-2away to Al Riyadh24 October 2026
  • L0-1Al-Qadisiyah FC20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al Diriyah17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Al Shabab11 October 2026

Al-Ettifaq

Pro League

  • W3-0away to Al Kholood24 October 2026
  • L1-4Al-Ittihad20 October 2026
  • W1-0away to NEOM17 October 2026
  • D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Al Taawon did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Al Taawon conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al-Ettifaq scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Al Taawon12057620-145
7Al-Ettifaq125431817+119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq

  • 3 February 2026Al-Ettifaq 1–0 Al TaawonPro League
  • 18 September 2025Al Taawon 4–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 26 February 2025Al-Ettifaq 1–0 Al TaawonPro League
  • 29 September 2024Al Taawon 1–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 27 May 2024Al Taawon 1–0 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 16 December 2023Al-Ettifaq 0–2 Al TaawonPro League

The result against the call

Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Ettifaq at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Abderrazak Hamdallah (penalty) 26' for Al Taawon, Abdullah Al-Khateeb 90' for Al-Ettifaq. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Taawon a 56.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.5% after a win, 57.4% after a draw, 61.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 57.4%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Al-Ettifaq the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.8% going in: 5.1% after a win, 3.0% after a draw, 2.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.0%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al Taawon v Al-Ettifaq has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is Al Taawon's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Al Taawon win29%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Al-Ettifaq win43%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.