31 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Qabala vs Qarabag Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Gabala
Referee: R. Hamzazade
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Qabala 0-0 Qarabag.

Before kick-off the model made it 16% Qabala, 23% draw, 61% Qarabag — fair odds of 6.25, 4.35 and 1.64.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Qarabag at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qabala2%Draw92%Qarabag6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

I. Amoah
14'
Edson Eduardo
45'
46'
🔁M. Jankovicout: R. Khadra
46'
🔁Matheus Silvaout: B. Huseynov
60'
🔁J. Mouaddibout: O. Kashchuk
68'
Diego Rosa
🔁M. Ubochiomaout: Bruno Silva
72'
74'
🔁R. Cephasout: M. Qurbanly
🔁Edson Eduardoout: N. Monzango
76'
87'
🔁C. Makreckisout: S. Lobato
🔁E. Camalovout: F. Iskandarov
90+2'
🔁Raphael Utzigout: N. Rashidov
90+2'

Line-ups

Qabala
Coach: Jeton Bekjiri
Qarabag
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Form going into Qabala vs Qarabag

Qabala

Premyer Liqa

  • W2-1away to Araz23 October 2026
  • L0-4Sabah FA17 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026

Qarabag

Premyer Liqa

  • D0-0away to Sabah FA25 October 2026
  • D3-3Neftchi Baku17 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Qabala11227618-128
4Qarabag10541148+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Qabala vs Qarabag

  • 9 May 2026Qabala 1–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
  • 21 December 2025Qabala 1–2 QarabagPremyer Liqa
  • 26 September 2025Qarabag 2–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 4 December 2024Qabala 0–2 QarabagCup
  • 20 April 2024Qarabag 2–2 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 28 February 2024Qabala 0–4 QarabagPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Qabala and Qarabag drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Qarabag at 61% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Qabala a 46.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 37.3% after a win, 44.6% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.6%, 2 points lower than before the match.

For Qarabag the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 29.7% going in: 31.5% after a win, 26.6% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.6%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.