Araz vs Zira Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Araz 2-2 Zira.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Araz, 27% draw, 43% Zira — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Zira at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Araz vs Zira
Araz
Premyer Liqa
- L1-2Qabala23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sumqayıt16 October 2026
- L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026
Zira
Premyer Liqa
- W3-2Sumqayıt23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kapaz18 October 2026
- D1-1Şamaxı FK10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Araz | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 4 |
| 5 | Zira | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Araz vs Zira
- 23 May 2026Araz 3–2 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 27 February 2026Araz 0–1 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 19 August 2025Zira 1–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 25 May 2025Araz 0–1 ZiraPremyer Liqa
- 28 February 2025Zira 0–2 ArazCup
- 6 February 2025Araz 1–0 ZiraCup
The result against the call
Araz and Zira drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Zira at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Andrade 22' for Araz, A. Salyanskiy 62' for Araz, E. Aydin 69' for Zira, M. Mchakhchekh 87' for Zira.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Araz a 66.6% chance to finish in the bottom two: 58.8% after a win, 67.5% after a draw, 70.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 67.5%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Zira the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 38.9% going in: 43.2% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 32.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.5%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.