1 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Hilal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result

Kingdom Arena, Riyadh
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Al-Hilal 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al-Hilal, 28% draw, 28% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Hilal at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Hilal99%Draw1%Al-Ahli Jeddah0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Milinkovic-Savicassist: S. Mandash
9'
11'
Roger Ibañez
Mohamed Kader Meite
13'
Crysencio Summerville
15'
⚽C. Summervilleassist: R. Neves
23'
🔁A. Lajamiout: H. Tambakti
30'
45+7'
Merih Demiral
45+4'
Merih Demiral
45+3'
Ivan Toney
45+7'
Merih Demiral
🔁M. Meiteout: O. Watkins
46'
46'
🔁Z. Al Johaniout: R. Hamidou
46'
🔁M. Sulaimanout: M. Abdulrahman
46'
🔁Trincaoout: F. Al Buraikan
48'
Rayan Hamed
🔁T. Hernandezout: M. Al Harbi
52'
82'
🔁Galenoout: M. Al Mutairi
⚽O. Watkinsassist: S. Mandash
86'
87'
🔁Z. Al Hawsawiout: N. Masoud
🔁S. Mandashout: N. Al Habashi
89'
🔁C. Summervilleout: S. Dahal
89'

Match stats — Al-Hilal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

56%Possession44%
12Shots13
6On target1
3Corners4
2.16xG1.35

Goals against chances

Al-Hilal3 from 2.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Ahli Jeddah0 from 1.35 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Hilal 4-2-3-1
  • 37BonoG
  • 2M. MahzariD
  • 78A. LajamiD
  • 3K. KoulibalyD
  • 19T. HernandezD
  • 8R. NevesM
  • 6N. Al DawsariM
  • 27S. MandashM
  • 22S. Milinkovic-SavicM
  • 38C. SummervilleM
  • 75M. MeiteF
Substitutes
  • 33M. Al OwaisG
  • 87H. TambaktiD
  • 24M. Al HarbiD
  • 55M. Al DawoodD
  • 28M. KannoM
  • 77N. Al HabashiD
  • 18M. Al HawsawiM
  • 11O. WatkinsF
  • 72S. DahalF
Coach: Simone Inzaghi
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-2-3-1
  • 16E. MendyG
  • 5M. SulaimanD
  • 28M. DemiralD
  • 3IbanezD
  • 2Z. Al HawsawiD
  • 30Z. Al JohaniM
  • 6V. AtanganaM
  • 7TrincaoM
  • 8E. SpertsyanM
  • 13GalenoM
  • 17I. ToneyF
Substitutes
  • 1A. Al SanbiG
  • 31S. BalobaidD
  • 46R. HamidouD
  • 66N. MasoudM
  • 47S. Abu Al ShamatF
  • 11M. Al MutairiM
  • 29M. AbdulrahmanD
  • 9F. Al BuraikanF
  • 21A. RadifF
Coach: Marino Pusic

Form going into Al-Hilal vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Hilal

No earlier matches on record this season.

Al-Ahli Jeddah

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Al Kholood29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Al-Hilal111001329+2330
6Al-Ahli Jeddah117042819+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Al-Hilal and Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Hilal

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Martinelli60
  • O. Watkins55
  • Rúben Neves53

Al-Ahli Jeddah

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toney132
  • Trincão63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Hilal beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–0. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Milinkovic-Savic 9' for Al-Hilal, C. Summerville 23' for Al-Hilal, O. Watkins 86' for Al-Hilal. Sent off: Merih Demiral (Al-Ahli Jeddah) 45+7'. On expected goals it finished 2.16–1.35.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.