Apollon Limassol vs Pafos 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Apollon Limassol 2-2 Pafos.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Apollon Limassol, 28% draw, 27% Pafos — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Cypriot First Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Apollon Limassol at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
Line-ups
- 29J. AsoroF
- 22P. KühnG
- 23Brandon ThomasF
- 9A. OžboltF
- 14G. MalekkidesD
- 77I. LjubicD
- 44J. KvídaD
- 37L. KonomisM
- 76Bruno GasparD
- 30Dani EscricheF
- 5M. BrownM
- 4E. AiwuD
- 12Gustavo AssunçãoM
- 38K. BalogiannisD
- 16Augustine Chima
- 6C. GoldsonD
- 89R. RotisF
- 26A. ShikkisD
- 31K. StylianouG
- 99I. UgboF
- 30V. DragomirM
- 6GugaM
- 14N. IoannouD
- 18LelêF
- 12K. SemaM
- 26I. ŠunjićM
- 4David LuizD
- 77João CorreiaD
- 7Bruno FelipeF
- 50Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho BritoM
- 99R. MajeckiG
- 2Yoram\t ZagueD
- 63L. Vetter PaulinoD
- 82P. PetrouG
- 17afonso patraoF
- 71M. PapastylianouG
- 23Jonatás NoroD
- 42G. MichaelF
- 47M. MammadovM
- 72K. IoannouD
Form going into Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
Apollon Limassol
1. Division
- W5-0away to Karmiotissa25 October 2026
- W4-2Nea Salamis17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026
Pafos
1. Division
- D0-0away to Nea Salamis26 October 2026
- D0-0Apoel Nicosia19 October 2026
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 16 |
| 6 | Pafos | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
- 29 May 2026Apollon Limassol 0–2 PafosCup
- 3 May 2026Apollon Limassol 2–1 Pafos1. Division
- 22 March 2026Pafos 1–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 4 January 2026Apollon Limassol 2–1 Pafos1. Division
- 13 September 2025Pafos 0–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 7 May 2025Apollon Limassol 0–2 PafosCup
Leading scorers: Apollon Limassol and Pafos
Apollon Limassol
GoalsAssists
- Brandon Thomas41
- A. Ožbolt40
- Garry Rodrigues24
Pafos
GoalsAssists
- Lelê20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Apollon Limassol and Pafos drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Apollon Limassol at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Leanderson da Silva Genésio 28' for Pafos, Alen Ožbolt 37' for Apollon Limassol, Brandon Thomas 67' for Apollon Limassol, Anderson Silva 88' for Pafos.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Apollon Limassol a 16.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 20.0% after a win, 13.3% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.3%, 3 points lower than before the match.
For Pafos the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 81.6% going in: 88.7% after a win, 82.5% after a draw, 78.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 82.5%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Apollon Limassol v Pafos has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Apollon Limassol's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Apollon Limassol win45%▲ +4
- Draw28%=
- Pafos win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.