18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat Pro League prediction & result

Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf
Referee: Majed Mohammed Al Shamrani
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Al-Fateh 2-3 Al Khaleej Saihat.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Al-Fateh, 28% draw, 35% Al Khaleej Saihat — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Fateh at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Fateh4%Draw92%Al Khaleej Saihat4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lukáš Haraslínassist: Mourad Batna
33'
Ali Al-Hassan
37'
Ali Alamine
38'
45'
🔁Thamer Al-Khaibriout: Joshua King
🔁Ali Alamineout: Fahad Al Zubaidi
45'
58'
Ali Saeed Ali Al Shaafi
⚽Wilfried Kangaassist: Hossam Essadak
60'
62'
🔁Hussain Al Issaout: Musa Barrow
62'
🔁Nawaf Al-Sadiout: Saleh Al Amri
🔁Lukáš Haraslínout: Faisal Abdulwahed
67'
76'
🔁Mansour Hamziout: Majed Omar Kanabah
76'
🔁Ali Saeed Ali Al Shaafiout: Pedro Rebocho
78'
⚽Musa Barrowassist: Saleh Al Amri
🔁Hossam Essadakout: Robin Kelder
81'
84'
⚽Joshua Kingassist: Mateo Benegas
🔁Abdulaziz Al-Suwailemout: Abdul Aziz Al-Fawaz
86'
Mihai Lixandru
89'
90+3'
⚽Omar Mascarell

Match stats — Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat

38%Possession62%
12Shots16
4On target4
7Corners10
0.69xG1.04

Goals against chances

Al-Fateh2 from 0.69 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al Khaleej Saihat3 from 1.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Fateh 3-4-3
  • 1A. ŠemperG
  • 8M. LixandruD
  • 17M. SaâdaneD
  • 78Abdulaziz Al SuwailemD
  • 27A. Alamine AliM
  • 6Ali Al HassanM
  • 20H. EssadakM
  • 16Abdulelah Al KhaibariM
  • 11M. BatnaF
  • 9W. KangaF
  • 10L. HaraslínF
Substitutes
  • 22Abdul Rahman Al KhaibariD
  • 94Waleed Al AnziG
  • 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
  • 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
  • 7Fahad Al ZubaidiF
  • 29Ali Al MasoudF
  • 88Othman Al-OthmaM
  • 49Saad Al SharfaF
  • 19R. KelderD
Coach: J. Sellami
Al Khaleej Saihat 4-4-2
  • 96Marwan Al HaidariG
  • 27Fawaz Al SaqourD
  • 13Ahmad AsiriD
  • 4K. KouyatéD
  • 14Ali Al ShaafiD
  • 18Nawaf Al SaadiM
  • 15Mansour HamziM
  • 8Omar MascarellM
  • 28Hussain Al EisaM
  • 90Thamer Al KhaibriF
  • 9M. BenegasF
Substitutes
  • 11Saleh Al AmriF
  • 3Mohammed Al KhabraniD
  • 99M. BarrowF
  • 5Pedro RebochoD
  • 1M. Abbas IbrahimG
  • 12Majed KanabahM
  • 7J. KingF
  • 17Abdullah Al HafithD
  • 16Bader MunshiM
Coach: José Gomes

Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Fateh

Pro League

  • W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
  • L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026

Al Khaleej Saihat

Pro League

  • W2-0Al-Fayha15 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Al-Ettifaq10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Al-Fateh121381025-156
9Al Khaleej Saihat123631419-515

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat

  • 24 April 2026Al-Fateh 1–0 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
  • 29 December 2025Al Khaleej Saihat 0–1 Al-FatehPro League
  • 12 April 2025Al Khaleej Saihat 1–5 Al-FatehPro League
  • 9 November 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
  • 9 March 2024Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Khaleej SaihatPro League
  • 15 September 2023Al Khaleej Saihat 1–3 Al-FatehPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Fateh

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Al Khaleej Saihat

GoalsAssists

  • J. King50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Khaleej Saihat won 3–2 at Al-Fateh. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Fateh at 37% and given a win for Al Khaleej Saihat 35%. The goals: Lukáš Haraslín 33' for Al-Fateh, Wilfried Kanga 60' for Al-Fateh, Musa Barrow 78' for Al Khaleej Saihat, Joshua King 84' for Al Khaleej Saihat, Omar Mascarell 90+3' for Al Khaleej Saihat. On expected goals it finished 0.69–1.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Fateh a 36.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.0% after a win, 37.5% after a draw, 43.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.0%, 7 points higher than before the match.

For Al Khaleej Saihat the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 21.1% going in: 14.3% after a win, 22.0% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.3%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Fateh v Al Khaleej Saihat has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Al Khaleej Saihat's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Al-Fateh win37%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Al Khaleej Saihat win35%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.