8 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca
Referee: Bryan Loayza
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 Orense SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Deportivo Cuenca, 29% draw, 30% Orense SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Cuenca at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Cuenca99%Draw1%Orense SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Sixto Mina
⚽Cristhian Benalcazar
37'
45+8'
⚽Ángel Mena (pen)
45'
🔁Ángel Menaout: Valentín Burgoa
45'
🔁Gonzalo Rostagnoout: Christian Alejandro Ortíz Calle
45'
🔁marlon quinonezout: Alan Gastón Lorenzo
⚽David Gonzalezassist: Cristhian Benalcazar
49'
Mateo Maccari
53'
Melvin Diaz
59'
🔁Lucas Mancinelliout: Marcos Andres Lopez
63'
66'
🔁B. Quiñonezout: J. Valencia
66'
🔁Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyesout: Andrés Parrales
70'
Andrés Parrales
74'
J. Valencia
🔁David Gonzalezout: Jeremy Mejía
77'
82'
J. Valencia
🔁Cristhian Benalcazarout: Matías Klimowicz
84'
🔁Melvin Diazout: Romario Ibarra
84'

Match stats — Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC

48%Possession53%
15Shots7
7On target1
3Corners3
0.86xG0.97

Goals against chances

Deportivo Cuenca2 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth
Orense SC0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Cuenca 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. FerreroG
  • 3G. NardelliD
  • 28P. BoolsenD
  • 6S. PostelD
  • 53Yeltzin Hernán Erique VilliguaD
  • 30M. MaccariM
  • 8É. VegaM
  • 88C. BenalcazarM
  • 49David GonzálezM
  • 19Melvin Fabricio Díaz CanenciaM
  • 7Lucas Eduardo MancinelliF
Substitutes
  • 29M. KlimowiczF
  • 14J. ChacónM
  • 25Marcos Andrés López CabreraD
  • 16J. MejiaM
  • 2Ignacio Ariel Mosquera ArroyoD
  • 22Josué Andrés Méndez OlivaresG
  • 5David Alejandro Noboa TelloM
  • 18I. PiedraD
  • 11G. RiveroF
Coach: A. Yllana
Orense SC 5-4-1
  • 12R. SilvaG
  • 31P. VelascoD
  • 4M. QuiñonezD
  • 2B. QuiñonezD
  • 3Sixto Romario Mina ArroyoD
  • 15B. CaicedoD
  • 13Á. MenaM
  • 21G. RostagnoM
  • 25R. JaramilloM
  • 19Michael Alessandro Bermúdez ReyesM
  • 11A. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 6S. CallegariD
  • 5A. LorenzoD
  • 26N. MolinaM
  • 22J. OrtizG
  • 51C. OrtízM
  • 10M. ParralesF
  • 14E. PluasM
  • 45O. QuiñonezD
  • 88J. ValenciaF
Coach: J. Buch

Form going into Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC

Deportivo Cuenca

Liga Pro

  • L1-3away to Delfin SC31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Manta FC24 October 2026
  • W2-1Tecnico Universitario16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Orense SC11 October 2026

Orense SC

Liga Pro

  • D1-1Tecnico Universitario2 November 2026
  • W4-0Delfin SC24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Mushuc Runa SC19 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Deportivo Cuenca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Orense SC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Orense SC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Orense SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Deportivo Cuenca36138153342-947
13Orense SC36109174353-1039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC

  • 11 October 2026Orense SC 0–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 16 August 2026Orense SC 2–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 22 April 2026Deportivo Cuenca 1–3 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 31 August 2025Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 10 May 2025Orense SC 1–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 10 August 2024Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Orense SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Deportivo Cuenca and Orense SC

Deportivo Cuenca

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Orense SC

GoalsAssists

  • A. Herrera123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Cuenca beat Orense SC 2–0. The model had made a win for Deportivo Cuenca its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Cristhian Benalcazar 37' for Deportivo Cuenca, David Gonzalez 49' for Deportivo Cuenca. Sent off: J. Valencia (Orense SC) 82'. On expected goals it finished 0.86–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Cuenca a 61.6% chance to win the league: 79.1% after a win, 58.9% after a draw, 40.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.1%, 17.5 points higher than before the match.

For Orense SC the question was the chance to win the league, 13.0% going in: 27.5% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 2.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.6%, 10.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.