9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah Pro League prediction & result

King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Referee: Mohammed Sami Taher Al Ismail, Saudi Arabia
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Al-Nassr 3-0 Al Diriyah.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Al-Nassr, 26% draw, 22% Al Diriyah — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Nassr at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Nassr99%Draw1%Al Diriyah0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Cristiano Ronaldo
23'
28'
Chancel Mbemba
⚽Samu Costaassist: Joao Felix
35'
40'
•Darwin Nuñez
45+2'
Abdulaziz Al Faraj
68'
🔁Hussain Al-Sabiyaniout: Lovro Chelfi
68'
🔁Abdulaziz Al Farajout: Mohammed Dheban
⚽Kingsley Comanassist: Sadio Mané
77'
🔁Kingsley Comanout: Ayman Yahya
78'
🔁Abdullah Al-Khaibariout: Sami Al-Najei
78'
🔁Joao Felixout: Abdullah Al-Hamdan
78'
83'
🔁Óscar Rodríguezout: Taher Wadi
84'
🔁Adil Boulbinaout: Hussain Al Qahtani
84'
🔁Idrissa Gueyeout: Meshari Fahad Al Nemer
🔁Awad Amanout: Saad Fahad Al Nasser
84'

Match stats — Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah

52%Possession48%
17Shots10
10On target1
10Corners8
3.2xG0.66

Goals against chances

Al-Nassr3 from 3.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
Al Diriyah0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Nassr 4-4-2
  • 24BentoG
  • 12Nawaf BoushalD
  • 3M. SimakanD
  • 26Íñigo MartínezD
  • 70Awad AmanD
  • 21K. ComanM
  • 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
  • 11Samú CostaM
  • 10S. ManéM
  • 79João FélixF
  • 7Cristiano RonaldoF
Substitutes
  • 94A. SufyaniF
  • 14Sami Al NajiM
  • 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
  • 22Abdulhadi Ali Al AlwanG
  • 6Saad Al NasserD
  • 4Nader Al SharariD
  • 60Saad HaqawiF
  • 50Majed QasheeshD
  • 23Ayman YahyaM
Coach: A. Postecoglou
Al Diriyah 5-3-2
  • 33Waleed AbdullahG
  • 2Abdulaziz Al FarajD
  • 19B. DjimsitiD
  • 87Qassem LajamiD
  • 99C. MbembaD
  • 16Hussain Al SibyaniD
  • 10A. BoulbinaM
  • 5I. GueyeM
  • 20E. MillotM
  • 29D. NúñezF
  • 14Óscar RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 6Sultan Al FarhanM
  • 12T. WadiD
  • 25L. ChelfiF
  • 4Saeed Al RubaieD
  • 52Hussain Al QahtaniM
  • 75Meshari Al NemerF
  • 78Khalid Al AsiriD
  • 21Mohammed DhebanD
  • 34Mansour Hibatullah Al SibyaniG
Coach: Bruno Lage

Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah

Al-Nassr

Pro League

  • D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026

Al Diriyah

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Abha13 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
  • L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Al-Nassr119112811+1728
8Al Diriyah124351013-315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah

  • 18 August 2026Al Diriyah 1–4 Al-NassrKing's Cup

Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al Diriyah

Al-Nassr

GoalsAssists

  • Cristiano Ronaldo80
  • Ângelo53

Al Diriyah

No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Nassr beat Al Diriyah 3–0. The model had made a win for Al-Nassr its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Cristiano Ronaldo 23' for Al-Nassr, Samu Costa 35' for Al-Nassr, Kingsley Coman 77' for Al-Nassr. On expected goals it finished 3.20–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Nassr a 78.3% chance to finish in the top four: 82.7% after a win, 76.4% after a draw, 71.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.7%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

For Al Diriyah the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.6% going in: 13.0% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.2%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Nassr v Al Diriyah has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Al-Nassr's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Al-Nassr win52%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Al Diriyah win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.