Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Kholood 0-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Al Kholood, 20% draw, 61% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 5.26, 5.00 and 1.64.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hamed Abdullah YousefG
- 24O. AbdulghaniD
- 47Abdulrahman Al ObaidD
- 25Mansour CamaraD
- 7Sultan Al ShehriD
- 6J. BuckleyM
- 8S. CisséM
- 70Muhammad SawanM
- 10Iker KortajarenaM
- 11CobaM
- 22J. DominguesF
- 67Mohammed Al RashidiM
- 39Abdulrahman Al DosariM
- 30Mohammed Mazyad AlshammariG
- 48Muhannad Al YahyaG
- 26Yaseen Al ZubaidiF
- 41Ibrahem BarabaaM
- 77A. EssombaF
- 52R. JamanM
- 99GugaF
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
- 6NachoD
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 33J. QuiñonesF
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 35A. Al SiyahiM
- 19Haitham AsiriF
- 27E. HoussaM
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
- 7Turki Al AmmarM
Form going into Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Kholood
Pro League
- L0-2away to Al Riyadh13 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Al-Ettifaq11 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Ahli Jeddah8 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al Diriyah3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Faisaly FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Qadisiyah FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 12 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 7 March 2026Al Kholood 1–4 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 6 November 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 4–0 Al KholoodPro League
- 2 May 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 4–1 Al KholoodPro League
- 6 December 2024Al Kholood 0–3 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 9 March 2024Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al KholoodDivision 1
- 25 October 2023Al Kholood 0–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCDivision 1
Leading scorers: Al Kholood and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- J. Domingues63
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders83
- M. Retegui72
- J. Quiñones65
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5–0 at Al Kholood. The model had made a win for Al-Qadisiyah FC its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tijjani Reijnders 4' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Christopher Bonsu Baah 13' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Musab Al-Juwayr 40' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Mateo Retegui 67' for Al-Qadisiyah FC, Julián Quiñones (penalty) 86' for Al-Qadisiyah FC. On expected goals it finished 2.54–5.22.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Qadisiyah FC a 20.3% chance to win the league: 22.5% after a win, 16.1% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.5%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al Kholood v Al-Qadisiyah FC has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 22% / 24% / 54% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 19% / 20% / 61%: the biggest move is Al-Qadisiyah FC's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Al Kholood win19%▼ −3
- Draw20%▼ −4
- Al-Qadisiyah FC win61%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.