9 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Araz vs Kapaz Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
Referee: R. Ahmedov
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Araz 0-2 Kapaz.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Araz, 26% draw, 26% Kapaz — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Araz at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Araz0%Draw1%Kapaz99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
D. Acquah
31'
⚽Benito
🔁Bruno Francoout: A. Sudi
42'
46'
🔁D. Acquahout: S. Seyidov
63'
🔁Benitoout: R. Haciyev
78'
🔁M. Baout: V. Abdullayev
78'
🔁V. Stinaout: R. Maharramli
C. Nuriyev
78'
🔁A. Salyanskiyout: U. Iskandarov
80'
P. Andrade
82'
🔁M. Maraout: C. Boli
85'
86'
⚽R. Haciyev
88'
🔁A. Fofanaout: A. Atakishiyev

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Araz110471123-124
6Kapaz105231010017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Araz vs Kapaz

  • 15 May 2026Araz 2–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 9 December 2025Araz 2–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 4 December 2025Araz 0–1 KapazCup
  • 12 September 2025Kapaz 0–2 ArazPremyer Liqa
  • 13 April 2025Kapaz 0–0 ArazPremyer Liqa
  • 10 February 2025Araz 0–0 KapazPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Kapaz won 2–0 at Araz. The model had leaned towards a win for Araz at 48% and given a win for Kapaz 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Benito 31' for Kapaz, R. Haciyev 86' for Kapaz.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Araz a 50.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.8% after a win, 54.6% after a draw, 57.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.7%, 7.3 points higher than before the match.

For Kapaz the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.8% going in: 33.2% after a win, 41.4% after a draw, 47.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.2%, 9.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Araz v Kapaz has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Araz's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Araz win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Kapaz win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.