30 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

ASO Chlef vs ES Setif Ligue 1 prediction & result

Full time1 – 2

Final score: ASO Chlef 1-2 ES Setif.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% ASO Chlef, 29% draw, 35% ES Setif — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ASO Chlef at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ASO Chlef0%Draw3%ES Setif97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽R. Benayad
M. Abboub
36'
C. Bekkouche
43'
⚽Z. Motraniassist: O. Benattia
45'
52'
C. Lakehal
M. Abboub
56'
M. Abboub
56'
59'
A. J. Yousef
73'
⚽I. Bouchagouraassist: R. Boumechra
74'
I. Bouchagoura

Form going into ASO Chlef vs ES Setif

ASO Chlef

Ligue 1

  • D1-1MB Rouisset24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Témouchent18 October 2026
  • D1-1MC Alger13 October 2026

ES Setif

Ligue 1

  • L1-2Témouchent24 October 2026
  • D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
  • D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15ASO Chlef9054713-65
10ES Setif8233108+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ASO Chlef vs ES Setif

  • 6 March 2026ASO Chlef 1–0 ES SetifLigue 1
  • 4 October 2025ES Setif 1–1 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 11 April 2025ASO Chlef 0–1 ES SetifLigue 1
  • 2 November 2024ES Setif 1–0 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 24 March 2024ES Setif 0–0 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 18 November 2023ASO Chlef 2–1 ES SetifLigue 1

The result against the call

ES Setif won 2–1 at ASO Chlef. The model had leaned towards a win for ASO Chlef at 36% and given a win for ES Setif 35%. The goals: R. Benayad 3' for ES Setif, Z. Motrani 45' for ASO Chlef, I. Bouchagoura 73' for ES Setif. Sent off: M. Abboub (ASO Chlef) 56'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ASO Chlef a 47.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.4% after a win, 49.3% after a draw, 55.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.8%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.

For ES Setif the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.1% going in: 9.5% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 18.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ASO Chlef v ES Setif has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is ASO Chlef's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. ASO Chlef win36%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. ES Setif win35%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.