31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca 1. Division prediction & result

Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca
Referee: Christou Konstantinos, Cyprus
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Krasava Ypsonas 2-2 AEK Larnaca.

Before kick-off the model made it 17% Krasava Ypsonas, 25% draw, 58% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 5.88, 4.00 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AEK Larnaca at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Krasava Ypsonas2%Draw93%AEK Larnaca5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

panagiotis angeli
11'
23'
Jorge Miramón
⚽Yassine Bahassa (pen)
24'
⚽Yassine Bahassa
24'
28'
Gus Ledes
45+2'
Hrvoje Miličević
⚽Issam Chebake (pen)
45+3'
46'
🔁Kerim Mrabtiout: Atanas Ioan Trică-Balaci
46'
🔁Gus Ledesout: Ivan pankov
55'
Sven Kohler
Luiyi de Lucas
55'
🔁panagiotis angeliout: Dmitrij melnichenko
58'
🔁Lysandros Andreas Papastylianouout: Diby Keita
58'
•
60'
64'
🔁Godswill Ekpoloout: Brian Olivan
Tabekou Ouambé
65'
66'
⚽Sven Kohler
71'
Ivan pankov
75'
🔁Hrvoje Miličevićout: Kostas Pileas
🔁Ioannis Kiakosout: Xavier Quintilla
77'
🔁Yassine Bahassaout: Andreas athanasiou
77'
81'
⚽Atanas Ioan Trică-Balaci
Dmitrij melnichenko
83'
84'
🔁Yerson Chacónout: Giorgos Naoum
🔁Vasilios Papafotisout: Nikolaos Dosis
90+1'

Match stats — Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca

31%Possession69%
8Shots13
5On target7
1Corners7

Line-ups

Krasava Ypsonas
  • 25A. ChristodoulouG
  • 13Tabekou OuambéF
  • 17L. PapastylianouF
  • 10V. PapafotisM
  • 77G. KiakosD
  • 30F. KatelarisM
  • 3L. de LucasD
  • 5Kristopher Da GracaD
  • 29Issam ChebakeD
  • 28Yassine BahassaF
  • 22P. AngeliM
Substitutes
  • 75Y. AvramenkoG
  • 20A. AthanasiouM
  • 9E. BudnikF
  • 8N. DosisM
  • 12Andreas GeorgiouM
  • 7JekaF
  • 21D. KeitaF
  • 18D. MelnichenkoM
  • 11M. PanagidisM
Coach: Marios Neophytou
AEK Larnaca
  • 11R. BajićF
  • 10Y. ChacónF
  • 22G. EkpoloD
  • 23S. KöhlerM
  • 14A. LayouniF
  • 7Gus LedesM
  • 15H. MiličevićM
  • 21MiramónD
  • 28K. MrabtiM
  • 4Enric SaboritD
  • 92A. PaleariG
Substitutes
  • 3M. van der HoornD
  • 19A. TricăF
  • 40Kyriakos StrouthouD
  • 17K. PileasD
  • 6I. PankovM
  • 5Brian OlivánD
  • 29G. NaoumM
  • 25C. KyriakouM
  • 2P. IoannouD
Coach: Rubén Sellés

Form going into Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca

Krasava Ypsonas

1. Division

  • D1-1away to Olympiakos24 October 2026
  • W2-1Karmiotissa17 October 2026
  • L1-3Apollon Limassol10 October 2026

AEK Larnaca

1. Division

  • W2-0Omonia Nicosia26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Aris18 October 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Krasava Ypsonas9126920-115
1AEK Larnaca9621198+1120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca

  • 18 January 2026AEK Larnaca 2–1 Krasava Ypsonas1. Division
  • 27 September 2025Krasava Ypsonas 0–4 AEK Larnaca1. Division

Leading scorers: Krasava Ypsonas and AEK Larnaca

Krasava Ypsonas

GoalsAssists

  • S. Tabekou21
  • Yassine Bahassa11

AEK Larnaca

GoalsAssists

  • Đ. Ivanović21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Krasava Ypsonas and AEK Larnaca drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for AEK Larnaca at 58% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Yassine Bahassa 24' for Krasava Ypsonas, Issam Chebake (penalty) 45+3' for Krasava Ypsonas, Sven Kohler 66' for AEK Larnaca, Atanas Ioan Trică-Balaci 81' for AEK Larnaca.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Krasava Ypsonas a 69.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 59.7% after a win, 68.4% after a draw, 72.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 68.4%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.

For AEK Larnaca the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 40.4% going in: 44.7% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 30.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.5%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.