15 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Alaves vs Getafe La Liga prediction & result

Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Alaves 3-0 Getafe.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Alaves, 28% draw, 23% Getafe — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Alaves at 49% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alaves98%Draw2%Getafe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Davinchi
23'
Mario Martín
41'
•Kiko Femenía
42'
Kiko Femenía
Denis Suárez
45+3'
46'
🔁Davinchiout: E. Unal
🔁D. Suarezout: M. Rodriguez
57'
🔁A. Manasout: M. Diaz
57'
🔁A. Perezout: Yusi
65'
Abderrahman Rebbach
66'
66'
🔁M. Martinout: A. R. Alcantara
73'
🔁M. Satrianoout: J. Valou
⚽N. Tenagliaassist: M. Diaz
73'
76'
Djené
81'
🔁Djeneout: S. Sazonov
81'
🔁A. Garciaout: S. Boselli
Antonio Blanco
85'
Mariano Díaz
90+2'
🔁A. Rebbachout: C. Alena
90+4'
🔁A. Blancoout: A. Guevara
90+4'
⚽M. Diaz
90'
⚽M. Rodriguezassist: M. Diaz
90'

Match stats — Alaves vs Getafe

52%Possession48%
18Shots6
8On target2
5Corners3
1.83xG0.24

Goals against chances

Alaves3 from 1.83 xGmore than the chances were worth
Getafe0 from 0.24 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alaves 3-5-2
  • 1A. SiveraG
  • 14N. TenagliaD
  • 16V. KoskiD
  • 17Jonny OttoD
  • 7A. PerezM
  • 19P. IbanezM
  • 8A. BlancoM
  • 4D. SuarezM
  • 21A. RebbachM
  • 11T. MartinezF
  • 20A. Manas
Substitutes
  • 13A. RodriguezG
  • 31G. SwiderskiG
  • 3YusiD
  • 24M. DiarraD
  • 12H. Novoa RamosF
  • 18M. Rodriguez
  • 10C. AlenaM
  • 23C. ProtesoniM
  • 6A. GuevaraM
Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores
Getafe 3-5-2
  • 13D. SoriaG
  • 2DjeneD
  • 5A. AbqarD
  • 24Z. RomeroD
  • 17Kiko FemeniaM
  • 11R. TerratsM
  • 23O. MangalaM
  • 6M. MartinM
  • 3DavinchiM
  • 21A. GarciaF
  • 10M. SatrianoF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LetacekG
  • 35D. FerrerG
  • 26J. ValouD
  • 22J. MojicaD
  • 4S. SazonovD
  • 15S. BoselliD
  • 28A. R. AlcantaraM
  • 19E. UnalF
  • 9B. MayoralF
Coach: Jose Bordalas Jimenez

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Alaves6312116+510
15Getafe512236-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alaves vs Getafe

  • 15 August 2026Alaves 3–0 GetafeLa Liga
  • 8 February 2026Alaves 0–2 GetafeLa Liga
  • 24 September 2025Getafe 1–1 AlavesLa Liga
  • 9 February 2025Alaves 0–1 GetafeLa Liga
  • 28 September 2024Getafe 2–0 AlavesLa Liga
  • 18 May 2024Alaves 1–0 GetafeLa Liga

Leading scorers: Alaves and Getafe

Alaves

  • L. Boyé4 goals
  • M. Díaz3 goals3 assists

Getafe

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.