15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result

Sevilla
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sevilla, 26% draw, 28% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sevilla at 46% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sevilla3%Draw92%Rayo Vallecano5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽A. Garcia
•Isaac Romero
38'
Isaac Romero
45+3'
🔁N. Guilenout: Peque
46'
🔁I. Romeroout: R. Ure
46'
⚽J. Guridi (pen)
52'
Jon Guridi
60'
64'
🔁I. Palazonout: S. Camello
65'
🔁R. Ntekaout: Alemao
67'
Álvaro García
🔁M. Sierraout: R. Vargas
70'
70'
🔁A. Garciaout: F. Perez
75'
Unai López
76'
Fran Pérez
🔁Osoout: C. Ejuke
78'
78'
🔁O. Valentinout: P. Fernandez
78'
🔁U. Lopezout: P. Diaz
Gabriel Suazo
81'
🔁J. Guridiout: M. Bueno
82'
Kike Salas
88'
Lucien Agoumé
90+12'
90+12'
Alemão
⚽Peque (pen)
90'

Match stats — Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

49%Possession51%
13Shots6
4On target3
1Corners2
2.3xG2

Goals against chances

Sevilla2 from 2.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rayo Vallecano1 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sevilla 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. VlachodimosG
  • 2J. IglesiasD
  • 12A. SanganteD
  • 4K. SalasD
  • 17G. SuazoD
  • 6L. AgoumeM
  • 27N. Guilen
  • 30M. SierraM
  • 18J. GuridiM
  • 19OsoM
  • 16I. RomeroF
Substitutes
  • 13FranG
  • 22J. A. CarmonaD
  • 5CastrinD
  • 34I. MunozD
  • 3J. DiazD
  • 11R. VargasM
  • 28M. BuenoM
  • 39E. AltozanoM
  • 21C. EjukeF
Coach: Luis Garcia Plaza
Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. BatallaG
  • 2A. RatiuD
  • 24F. LejeuneD
  • 6P. CissD
  • 20I. BalliuD
  • 8U. LopezM
  • 23O. ValentinM
  • 19J. de FrutosM
  • 7I. PalazonM
  • 18A. GarciaM
  • 11R. NtekaF
Substitutes
  • 1D. CardenasG
  • 33J. VertrouwdD
  • 22P. FernandezD
  • 26M. de las SiasD
  • 27S. Lozano
  • 4P. DiazM
  • 34I. Alonso MartinD
  • 31M. RomanM
  • 9AlemaoF
Coach: Benat San Jose

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Sevilla641196+313
11Rayo Vallecano62131015-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

  • 15 August 2026Sevilla 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 8 March 2026Sevilla 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 28 September 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–1 SevillaLa Liga
  • 1 March 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
  • 24 November 2024Sevilla 1–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 5 February 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–2 SevillaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano

Sevilla

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Rayo Vallecano

  • Sergio Camello6 goals1 assists
  • Álvaro García2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.