America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali Primera A prediction & result
Final score: America de Cali 0-0 Deportivo Cali.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% America de Cali, 33% draw, 26% Deportivo Cali — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
America de Cali at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jean FernandesG
- 13Mateo Castillo MárquezD
- 24Cristian TovarD
- 3Dany RoseroD
- 30Omar BertelD
- 18Yani QuinteroM
- 5Josen EscobarM
- 23Luis QuiñonesM
- 10Yeison GuzmánM
- 7Jhon MurilloM
- 21Tomás ÁngelF
- 88Tilman PalaciosF
- 9Daniel ValenciaF
- 20Adrián RamosF
- 12Juan MontoyaG
- 2Marlon TorresD
- 22Nicolás HernándezD
- 6José CavadiaM
- 36Jhordy CamachoF
- 31Juan AponzáM
- 1Pedro GalleseG
- 15Léyser ChaverraD
- 12José CalderaD
- 4Fernando ÁlvarezD
- 28Edwin VelascoD
- 8Daniel GiraldoM
- 5Gustavo CuéllarM
- 19Johan MartínezM
- 10Emanuel ReynosoM
- 14Alexis ManyomaM
- 9Juan DinennoF
- 20Eduard BelloF
- 23Steven RodríguezF
- 18Avilés HurtadoF
- 13Ronaldo PájaroD
- 70Carlos BaccaF
- 38Alejandro RodríguezG
- 16Keimer SandovalD
- 36Miguel CorreaM
- 45Matías BoteroF
Form going into America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
America de Cali
Primera A
- D0-0away to Millonarios5 November 2026
- W2-1Fortaleza FC29 October 2026
- W3-1Cucuta24 October 2026
Deportivo Cali
Primera A
- W2-0Chico1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza FC25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Llaneros21 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 15 | +16 | 36 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Deportivo Cali
- 25 April 2026Deportivo Cali 1–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 19 October 2025Deportivo Cali 0–2 America de CaliPrimera A
- 7 September 2025America de Cali 0–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 27 April 2025America de Cali 2–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 24 March 2025Deportivo Cali 1–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 3 November 2024America de Cali 0–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Deportivo Cali
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán206
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez113
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
America de Cali and Deportivo Cali drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for America de Cali at 41% and given a draw 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.40–0.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave America de Cali a 15.9% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 29.0% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 1.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.8%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.
For Deportivo Cali the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 2.1% going in: 6.3% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.