8 November 2026, 23:10 UTC

Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Referee: Edwin Ferney Trujillo Castro, Colombia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Deportes Tolima 2-1 Millonarios.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Deportes Tolima, 31% draw, 31% Millonarios — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportes Tolima at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportes Tolima97%Draw3%Millonarios0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽J. Cuadrado
H. E. Martinez Yepez
9'
14'
M. Garcia
18'
S. Vega
⚽E. Valencia (pen)
25'
27'
J. Cuadrado
29'
🔁D. Ruizout: F. Chaverra
⚽K. Florezassist: H. E. Martinez Yepez
36'
J. Hernandez
45+1'
45+3'
S. Mosquera
46'
🔁M. Garciaout: L. Castro
46'
🔁D. Bangueroout: A. Estupinan
K. Florez
46'
🔁H. E. Martinez Yepezout: J. Angulo
56'
🔁E. Valenciaout: L. Sandoval
56'
🔁B. Roviraout: V. Reyes
65'
•J. Angulo
72'
J. Mosquera
75'
🔁J. Hurtadoout: E. Lopez
80'
🔁A. Parra Osorioout: S. Aguayo
80'
L. Sandoval
82'
86'
🔁J. Cuadradoout: D. Quintero
90+1'
🔁S. Vegaout: Leonai Souza
S. Aguayo
90+5'

Match stats — Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios

46%Possession54%
11Shots12
2On target4
3Corners3
1.38xG0.66

Goals against chances

Deportes Tolima2 from 1.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Millonarios1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
  • 13Miguel OrtegaG
  • 33Jherson MosqueraD
  • 71Yordan OsorioD
  • 5Juan MeraD
  • 20Junior HernándezD
  • 14Homer MartinezM
  • 80Brayan RoviraM
  • 18Kelvin FlorezM
  • 8Ever ValenciaM
  • 7Jorge HurtadoM
  • 24Adrián ParraF
Substitutes
  • 3Jan ÁnguloD
  • 9Luis SandovalF
  • 16Victor ReyesM
  • 28Edwar LópezF
  • 15Sergio Armando Aguayo CastilloF
  • 23Gali BalantaG
  • 4Daniel PedrozoD
  • 11Jader ValenciaF
  • 29Neifer SanchezF
Millonarios 4-2-3-1
  • 1Javier BurraiG
  • 3Samuel MartínD
  • 4Stiven BarreiroD
  • 6Sergio MosqueraD
  • 20Danovis BangueroD
  • 28Stiven VegaM
  • 19Mateo GarcíaM
  • 10Daniel RuizM
  • 14David Macalister SilvaM
  • 7Juan CuadradoM
  • 27Rodrigo ContrerasF
Substitutes
  • 13Francisco ChaverraM
  • 23Leonardo CastroF
  • 11Andrey EstupiñánF
  • 25Darwin QuinteroM
  • 55LeonaiM
  • 12James AguirreG
  • 17Jorge AriasD
  • 43Cristian UparelaD
  • 30Sebastián del CastilloM

Form going into Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios

Deportes Tolima

Primera A

  • W3-1away to Deportivo Pereira3 November 2026
  • L0-1Deportivo Pasto26 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Águilas Doradas18 October 2026

Millonarios

Primera A

  • D0-0America de Cali5 November 2026
  • D1-1Once Caldas21 October 2026
  • W4-1Jaguares17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Deportes Tolima197662523+227
7Millonarios197932716+1130

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios

  • 24 April 2026Millonarios 2–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • 17 August 2025Deportes Tolima 3–1 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 2 March 2025Millonarios 2–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • 3 August 2024Millonarios 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
  • 3 February 2024Deportes Tolima 2–0 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 8 August 2023Millonarios 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A

Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and Millonarios

Deportes Tolima

GoalsAssists

  • A. Parra95

Millonarios

GoalsAssists

  • A. Estupiñán194
  • L. Castro126
  • R. Contreras101

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportes Tolima beat Millonarios 2–1. The model had made a win for Deportes Tolima its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Cuadrado 8' for Millonarios, E. Valencia (penalty) 25' for Deportes Tolima, K. Florez 36' for Deportes Tolima. Sent off: S. Aguayo (Deportes Tolima) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.38–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportes Tolima a 9.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 21.1% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.1%, 11.3 points higher than before the match.

For Millonarios the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 97.6% going in: 100.0% after a win, 99.6% after a draw, 94.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.8%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.