9 November 2026, 01:15 UTC

Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar
Referee: S. Bismark
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Alianza Valledupar 1-2 Llaneros.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Alianza Valledupar, 30% draw, 30% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alianza Valledupar at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alianza Valledupar0%Draw4%Llaneros96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
J. Pertuz
16'
⚽J. Castillaassist: J. Escobar Salcedo
⚽M. Martinezassist: F. Pardo
21'
🔁M. Martinezout: C. Vergara
34'
35'
⚽Jhon Vasquez (pen)
41'
D. Quintero
🔁S. Quinonesout: B. Viafara
46'
🔁E. W. Meza Mercadoout: J. E. Perez Balcazar
57'
64'
🔁J. Ramirezout: B. Chury
64'
🔁J. Castillaout: Kelvin Osorio
J. Castillo
70'
70'
🔁J. Contrerasout: C. Cortes
🔁J. Castilloout: Y. Rosales
74'
🔁F. Pardoout: L. Palacios
74'
79'
🔁N. Ospinaout: K. Rincon
79'
🔁Jhon Vasquezout: J. Medranda
84'
M. Sierra
J. E. Perez Balcazar
90+3'

Match stats — Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros

58%Possession42%
18Shots16
3On target6
8Corners6
1.52xG1.39

Goals against chances

Alianza Valledupar1 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth
Llaneros2 from 1.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alianza Valledupar 3-4-3
  • 40Eduar BeltránG
  • 2Sebastián QuiñonesD
  • 3Kevin MorenoD
  • 5Pedro FrancoD
  • 23Israel AlbaM
  • 7Jair CastilloM
  • 6Ever MezaM
  • 33Jhildrey LassoM
  • 17Felipe PardoF
  • 77Misael MartínezF
  • 8Jesús MuñozF
Substitutes
  • 18Cristian Andres Vergara RivasF
  • 11Brayan ViafaraF
  • 25Josy PérezM
  • 60Yilson RosalesD
  • 88Leyner PalaciosM
  • 13Antonio SimancasG
  • 21Samuel NietoF
  • 14Charly VillegasF
  • 20Leimar LunaM
Llaneros 4-1-4-1
  • 12Juan LoaizaG
  • 4Juan PertuzD
  • 21Francisco MezaD
  • 26Dennys QuinteroD
  • 16Jhojan EscobarD
  • 6Marlon SierraM
  • 8Juan RamirezM
  • 10Neider OspinaM
  • 13Juan CastillaM
  • 70Joel ContrerasM
  • 95Jhon VásquezF
Substitutes
  • 20Brandon ChuryM
  • 33Kelvin OsorioM
  • 9Carlos CortésF
  • 94Jimmy MedrandaD
  • 14Kevin RincónF
  • 22Roameth RomañaG
  • 31Emilio PardoD

Form going into Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros

Alianza Valledupar

Primera A

  • L1-2away to Independiente Medellin1 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Once Caldas28 October 2026
  • W1-0Internacional de Bogota25 October 2026

Llaneros

Primera A

  • W3-2Junior31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Jaguares26 October 2026
  • L0-3Deportivo Cali21 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Alianza Valledupar1953111833-1518
12Llaneros197392124-324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros

  • 26 April 2026Llaneros 0–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 27 September 2025Alianza Valledupar 3–1 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 11 April 2025Llaneros 0–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A

The result against the call

Llaneros won 2–1 at Alianza Valledupar. The model had leaned towards a win for Alianza Valledupar at 40% and given a win for Llaneros 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Castilla 16' for Llaneros, M. Martinez 21' for Alianza Valledupar, Jhon Vasquez (penalty) 35' for Llaneros. On expected goals it finished 1.52–1.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alianza Valledupar a 3.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.8%, 5.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.