8 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin, Bogota
Referee: Ferney Ossa Orozco, Colombia
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Santa Fe 5-0 Deportivo Pasto.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Santa Fe, 27% draw, 17% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.79, 3.70 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Santa Fe at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽F. Fagundezassist: C. Mafla
10'
🔁C. Maflaout: L. Palacios
22'
24'
H. Goyes
⚽L. Caicedo (OG)
34'
🔁E. Oliveraout: I. R. Scarpeta Silgado
46'
58'
S. Portes
⚽H. Rodallega (pen)
58'
⚽H. Rodallega
62'
🔁E. Rodriguezout: O. Fernandez
64'
🔁D. Torresout: K. D. Toscano Bassa
65'
65'
🔁P. Preciadoout: T. Blandon
65'
🔁H. Valenciaout: S. Duran
⚽H. Rodallegaassist: J. Obrian
71'
🔁J. Obrianout: C. Portocarrero
71'
73'
🔁F. Martinezout: J. Quintero
73'
🔁J. Revolloout: J. Arboleda
78'
🔁J. Perlazaout: D. Chillambo

Match stats — Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto

59%Possession41%
11Shots6
6On target1
1Corners2
2.43xG0.51

Goals against chances

Santa Fe5 from 2.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
Deportivo Pasto0 from 0.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Santa Fe 4-2-3-1
  • 1Andrés MosqueraG
  • 13Helibelton PalaciosD
  • 18Emanuel OliveraD
  • 3Victor MorenoD
  • 32Christian MaflaD
  • 16Daniel TorresM
  • 7Jhojan TorresM
  • 77Jader ObrianM
  • 9Franco FagúndezM
  • 25Emerson RodríguezM
  • 11Hugo RodallegaF
Substitutes
  • 14Luis Angel PalaciosF
  • 15Ivan ScarpetaD
  • 6Kilian ToscanoF
  • 8Omar FernándezF
  • 12Weimar AsprillaG
  • 43Jean CaicedoD
  • 10Alexis ZapataM
  • 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
  • 19Nahuel BustosF
Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
  • 13Luis MarquínezG
  • 30Luis CaicedoD
  • 4Juan RevolloD
  • 44Samuel PortesD
  • 27Hervin GoyesD
  • 26Heiler MorenoM
  • 24Kevin SantacruzM
  • 35Frank MartínezM
  • 7Jonathan PerlazaM
  • 38Michael MosqueraF
  • 19Patrick PreciadoF
Substitutes
  • 28Tomás BlandónF
  • 34Ruben QuirozG
  • 41Juan ArboledaD
  • 21Yinier PereaM
  • 43Juan David Quintero PantojaM
  • 22José SolarteF
  • 40Sebastián DuránF
  • 31Édgar GarcíaM
  • 37Didier ChillamboF

Form going into Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto

Santa Fe

Primera A

  • L0-1away to Cucuta4 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Atletico Nacional30 October 2026
  • W2-1Bucaramanga27 October 2026

Deportivo Pasto

Primera A

  • W2-0Jaguares3 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Bucaramanga31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Deportes Tolima26 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Santa Fe1910453018+1234
18Deportivo Pasto1943121330-1715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto

  • 23 April 2026Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Santa FePrimera A
  • 20 September 2025Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
  • 5 April 2025Santa Fe 1–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 2 December 2024Santa Fe 1–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 29 November 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
  • 17 July 2024Santa Fe 2–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A

Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto

Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • H. Rodallega173
  • F. Fagúndez105
  • N. Bustos105

Deportivo Pasto

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santa Fe beat Deportivo Pasto 5–0. The model had made a win for Santa Fe its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Fagundez 10' for Santa Fe, L. Caicedo (own goal) 34' for Santa Fe, H. Rodallega (penalty) 58' for Santa Fe, H. Rodallega 62' for Santa Fe, H. Rodallega 71' for Santa Fe. On expected goals it finished 2.43–0.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santa Fe a 98.7% chance to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 99.7% after a draw, 92.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

For Deportivo Pasto the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 58.3% going in: 13.2% after a win, 54.9% after a draw, 69.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.5%, 11.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Santa Fe v Deportivo Pasto has moved

First published on 27 Oct at 59% / 25% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 56% / 27% / 17%: the biggest move is Santa Fe's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Santa Fe win56%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▲ +2
  3. Deportivo Pasto win17%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.