8 November 2026, 21:05 UTC

Jaguares vs Bucaramanga Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Jaraguay, Monteria
Referee: Andres Rojas, Colombia
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Jaguares 0-4 Bucaramanga.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Jaguares, 28% draw, 44% Bucaramanga — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bucaramanga at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

F. Mosquera
9'
🔁J. Malagonout: D. Martinez
11'
12'
⚽B. Caicedo (pen)
15'
⚽R. Bustamante (OG)
🔁J. Mejiaout: C. Henao
18'
34'
A. Zarate
46'
🔁E. Batallaout: N. Ramirez
46'
🔁A. Zarateout: V. Cantillo
62'
C. Romana
62'
F. Sambueza
63'
🔁J. Garciaout: F. Hinestroza
🔁F. A. Gil Mosqueraout: D. Lopez
74'
🔁Jopitoout: D. Rodriguez Urango
74'
🔁W. De La Rosaout: R. R. Colpa Bolano
74'
76'
⚽B. Caicedoassist: F. Hinestroza
77'
🔁L. Floresout: O. Albornoz
79'
⚽F. Sambueza
81'
🔁F. Sambuezaout: K. Londono

Match stats — Jaguares vs Bucaramanga

47%Possession53%
6Shots19
1On target7
5Corners6
0.2xG3.06

Goals against chances

Jaguares0 from 0.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bucaramanga4 from 3.06 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jaguares 4-2-3-1
  • 12Franklin MosqueraG
  • 18Luis JiménezD
  • 6Jonathan LoveraD
  • 3Jerson MalagónD
  • 23Juan PérezD
  • 32Jose YanezM
  • 21Rafael BustamanteM
  • 20Faber Andrés GilM
  • 10Cristian AlvarezM
  • 7Wilfrido De la RosaM
  • 9Johar MejíaF
Substitutes
  • 1Diego MartínezG
  • 29Carlos HenaoD
  • 5Royscer ColpaM
  • 8Duvan RodríguezF
  • 17Darwin LopezF
  • 4Juan FrancoD
  • 27Faber GraciaM
  • 28Diego ZuluagaM
  • 16Johan BeltránF
Bucaramanga 3-4-3
  • 25Cristopher FiermarínG
  • 24José OrtizD
  • 23Carlos RomañaD
  • 4José GarcíaD
  • 19Aldair GutiérrezM
  • 20Aldair ZárateM
  • 21Felix CharrupíM
  • 28Leonardo FloresM
  • 17Emerson BatallaF
  • 9Brandon CaicedoF
  • 10Fabián SambuezaF
Substitutes
  • 32Nilzo RamírezM
  • 30Víctor CantilloM
  • 8Freddy HinestrozaM
  • 80Omar AlbornozD
  • 7Kevin LondoñoM
  • 61Andrés GómezG
  • 3Martín ReaD
  • 11Fredy SalazarF
  • 5Adrián MurilloF

Form going into Jaguares vs Bucaramanga

Jaguares

Primera A

  • L0-2away to Deportivo Pasto3 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Deportivo Pereira30 October 2026
  • W1-0Llaneros26 October 2026

Bucaramanga

Primera A

  • D1-1Atletico Nacional3 November 2026
  • W2-1Deportivo Pasto31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Santa Fe27 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Jaguares1934121737-2013
4Bucaramanga199823117+1435

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Bucaramanga

  • 25 April 2026Bucaramanga 2–2 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 28 July 2024Bucaramanga 0–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 2 February 2024Jaguares 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 7 August 2023Bucaramanga 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 11 February 2023Jaguares 1–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 20 September 2022Jaguares 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A

Leading scorers: Jaguares and Bucaramanga

Jaguares

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rentería123

Bucaramanga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Pons155
  • E. Batalla126

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bucaramanga won 4–0 at Jaguares. The model had made a win for Bucaramanga its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: B. Caicedo (penalty) 12' for Bucaramanga, R. Bustamante (own goal) 15' for Bucaramanga, B. Caicedo 76' for Bucaramanga, F. Sambueza 79' for Bucaramanga. Sent off: F. Mosquera (Jaguares) 9'. On expected goals it finished 0.20–3.06.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jaguares a 92.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 78.4% after a win, 96.8% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 7.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.