Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-1 Alianza Lima.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 28% draw, 49% Alianza Lima — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Alianza Lima at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. CamachoG
- 33C. PimientaD
- 2H. GonzálezD
- 26D. GonzálesD
- 77F. EspinozaM
- 17C. VelardeM
- 5J. PalominoM
- 14B. GuevaraM
- 10F. TorresM
- 11J. QuinteroM
- 20M. TorresF
- 6A. AyarzaM
- 27K. BarriosD
- 4A. CamposM
- 16A. ChávezD
- 7J. OspinaF
- 18O. TakeuchiF
- 12L. PretelG
- 24G. RizzoD
- 15K. SánchezM
- 1A. DuarteG
- 14D´Alessandro MontenegroD
- 17L. AdvínculaD
- 3M. AntoniD
- 32J. GarcíaD
- 25G. GentileM
- 7F. GaiborM
- 5E. PavezM
- 2N. DíazM
- 99F. GirottiF
- 8E. CastilloF
- 12Á. de la CruzG
- 29J. ArchimbaudM
- 18A. BurlamaquiM
- 11A. CanteroF
- 31C. CarbajalD
- 15J. CastilloM
- 4G. ChávezD
- 27K. QuevedoF
- 9L. RamosF
Form going into Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Primera División
- D0-0away to UCV Moquegua1 November 2026
- L0-1Cusco29 October 2026
- L1-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso25 October 2026
- W2-1ADT16 October 2026
Alianza Lima
Primera División
- W1-0Cienciano4 November 2026
- L2-3away to Sporting Cristal29 October 2026
- W1-0away to UCV Moquegua25 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau18 October 2026
What these results say
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Lima scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Lima won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 48 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 54 | 24 | +30 | 69 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
- 24 May 2026Alianza Lima 3–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
- 5 November 2025Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–2 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 19 April 2025Alianza Lima 1–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
- 24 August 2024Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 29 March 2024Alianza Lima 3–0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasPrimera División
Leading scorers: Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
GoalsAssists
- F. Torres95
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo216
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Alianza Lima at 49% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Erick Castillo 51' for Alianza Lima, Kelvin Sanchez 59' for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.92.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.