8 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Miguel Grau, Callao
Referee: Augusto Alfredo Menendez Laos
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Sport Boys 0-0 UTC Cajamarca.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Sport Boys, 25% draw, 19% UTC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sport Boys at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sport Boys7%Draw91%UTC Cajamarca2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Manuel Ganoza
45'
🔁Luis Arceout: Arquímedes Figuera
🔁Christian Cuevaout: Miguel Trauco
61'
🔁Jostin Alarconout: José Davey
61'
62'
Francesco Cavagna
🔁Percy Lizaout: Pablo Erustes
68'
69'
🔁Marlon de Jesúsout: Abdiel Arroyo
Mathias Llontop
75'
79'
David Dioses
81'
🔁Dylan Caroout: Gilmar Paredes
🔁Yuriel Celiout: Rolando Diaz
85'
85'
🔁Adolfo Muñozout: Jhosep Nunez
Rolando Diaz
86'
87'
Cristián Molins
Pablo Erustes
89'

Match stats — Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca

48%Possession52%
20Shots10
3On target1
7Corners7
1.51xG0.42

Goals against chances

Sport Boys0 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth
UTC Cajamarca0 from 0.42 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sport Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 22D. MeliánG
  • 17E. SabaD
  • 26H. RiojasD
  • 55G. DulantoD
  • 13M. LlontopD
  • 24O. MoraM
  • 5F. IllanesM
  • 77Y. CeliM
  • 10J. AlarcónM
  • 99C. CuevaM
  • 30P. LizaF
Substitutes
  • 14R. DíazF
  • 33J. DaveyM
  • 4R. AlfaniD
  • 32P. ErustesF
  • 21A. HuamánM
  • 61J. NolascoG
  • 36Nicolas PazM
  • 47M. TraucoD
  • 2Luciano Francesco Zambrano AliagaD
Coach: C. Desio
UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. CamposG
  • 17L. GarroD
  • 3M. GanozaD
  • 6F. CavagnaD
  • 13D. CaroD
  • 8D. DiosesM
  • 88L. ArceM
  • 22D. CamachoM
  • 10M. LliuyaM
  • 19A. MuñozM
  • 9M. de JesúsF
Substitutes
  • 35G. ParedesD
  • 7J. NunezF
  • 5J. HuertoD
  • 18S. GálvezF
  • 16A. FigueraM
  • 2B. DuarteD
  • 21R. BettocchiG
  • 11A. ArroyoF
Coach: C. Molins

Form going into Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca

Sport Boys

Primera División

  • D2-2away to Universitario5 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Cusco1 November 2026
  • W4-2FC Cajamarca25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College17 October 2026

UTC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • L2-3Deportivo Garcilaso2 November 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Cajamarca28 October 2026
  • L1-2FBC Melgar23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cienciano18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sport Boys scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sport Boys conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • UTC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • UTC Cajamarca failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • UTC Cajamarca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Sport Boys331210113735+242
18UTC Cajamarca3359193858-2014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca

  • 23 May 2026UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 2 November 2025Sport Boys 2–2 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 28 June 2025UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 27 October 2024Sport Boys 1–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 20 May 2024UTC Cajamarca 2–4 Sport BoysPrimera División
  • 29 September 2023UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Sport BoysPrimera División

The result against the call

Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sport Boys at 56% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Cristián Molins (UTC Cajamarca) 87'. On expected goals it finished 1.51–0.42.

How the call on Sport Boys v UTC Cajamarca has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 54% / 27% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is Sport Boys's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Sport Boys win56%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. UTC Cajamarca win19%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.