Atalanta vs Venezia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 3-1 Venezia.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Atalanta, 21% draw, 13% Venezia — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Venezia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 19F. KessiéM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 99E. ElmasM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 11J. RoweM
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 57M. SportielloG
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 1F. StankovićG
- 25R. HalhalD
- 15Juan JesusD
- 2M. MorenoD
- 18A. HainautM
- 71Kike PérezM
- 19S. SohmM
- 26T. BašićM
- 14Thierry CorreiaM
- 10J. YeboahF
- 45A. AdamsF
- 77Toni FernándezM
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 95A. GomesD
- 5R. HapsD
- 21Þ. HelgasonM
- 29L. LauberbachF
- 56K. LismanF
- 16R. MohammedD
- 96L. MontipòG
Form going into Atalanta vs Venezia
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hapoel Tel Aviv27 August 2026
Venezia
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Lazio19 September 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
- L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
- L0-2Lecce23 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Venezia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Venezia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Venezia
- 1 March 2025Atalanta 0–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 20 October 2024Venezia 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
- 23 April 2022Venezia 1–3 AtalantaSerie A
- 12 January 2022Atalanta 2–0 VeneziaCoppa Italia
- 30 November 2021Atalanta 4–0 VeneziaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Venezia
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atalanta beat Venezia 3–1. The model had made a win for Atalanta its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Franck Kessié 4' for Atalanta, Nikola Krstović 6' for Atalanta, Nikola Krstović 30' for Atalanta, Antoine Hainaut 37' for Venezia. Sent off: Elif Elmas (Atalanta) 89'. On expected goals it finished 2.26–2.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atalanta a 15.5% chance to finish in the top four: 16.7% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 9.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.7%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
For Venezia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 90.9% going in: 87.3% after a win, 90.6% after a draw, 91.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.6%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atalanta v Venezia has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 58% / 25% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 66% / 21% / 13%: the biggest move is Atalanta's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Atalanta win66%▲ +8
- Draw21%▼ −4
- Venezia win13%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.