Antwerp vs St. Truiden Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Antwerp, 28% draw, 29% St. Truiden — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Antwerp at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Antwerp vs St. Truiden
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41T. NozawaG
- 28L. SchelfhoutD
- 4Y. TsunashimaD
- 20R. Van HeldenD
- 27E. Tuypens
- 77I. SalahM
- 25M. FofanaM
- 10C. ScottM
- 24T. SomersM
- 9M. FreyF
- 99L. NarhF
- 81N. Devalckeneer
- 44M. BusiD
- 17S. RendersD
- 14X. DierckxM
- 16L. Van GelderM
- 11G. HairemansM
- 33S. PorozoM
- 29J. GodelaineF
- 16L. KokuboG
- 60R. VanwesemaelD
- 5S. TaniguchiD
- 26V. MusliuD
- 3T. HataD
- 8A. SissakoM
- 14R. MerlenM
- 7A. MujaM
- 71R. ArakiM
- 10I. SebaouiM
- 77O. Diouf
- 21M. LendfersG
- 33A. DirikenM
- 23J. PupeD
- 18N. IshiwatariM
- 38K. MatsuzawaF
- 31I. BenachourM
- 22W. JanssensD
- 99S. ShinkawaM
- 9S. BazdarF
Form going into Antwerp vs St. Truiden
Antwerp
All competitions we cover
- D4-4Genk22 August 2026
- W3-0away to Kortrijk15 August 2026
- W2-1SK Beveren9 August 2026
St. Truiden
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to Omonia Nicosia27 August 2026
- W1-0Omonia Nicosia20 August 2026
- D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026
- D1-1Lommel United8 August 2026
What these results say
- St. Truiden scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- St. Truiden failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Antwerp | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Antwerp vs St. Truiden
- 28 February 2026Antwerp 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 3 December 2025Antwerp 3–3 St. TruidenCup
- 2 November 2025St. Truiden 1–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 24 January 2025St. Truiden 1–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 11 August 2024Antwerp 6–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Antwerp and St. Truiden
Antwerp
GoalsAssists
- M. Frey40
- S. Porozo40
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- I. Sebaoui43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Truiden won 4–1 at Antwerp. The model had leaned towards a win for Antwerp at 43% and given a win for St. Truiden 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: R. Araki 9' for St. Truiden, S. Porozo 58' for Antwerp, S. Bazdar 73' for St. Truiden, K. Matsuzawa 76' for St. Truiden, S. Bazdar 90' for St. Truiden. On expected goals it finished 0.77–3.38.