30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Antwerp vs St. Truiden Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Bosuilstadion
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Antwerp, 28% draw, 29% St. Truiden — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Antwerp at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Antwerp0%Draw1%St. Truiden99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luca Schelfhout
2'
9'
⚽R. Araki
28'
Léo Kokubo
🔁L. Schelfhoutout: M. Busi
46'
🔁L. Narhout: S. Porozo
46'
⚽S. Porozo
58'
61'
🔁O. Dioufout: S. Bazdar
🔁I. Salahout: X. Dierckx
66'
73'
⚽S. Bazdarassist: R. Merlen
74'
•Samed Baždar
🔁T. Somersout: G. Hairemans
75'
75'
🔁R. Arakiout: N. Ishiwatari
75'
🔁A. Mujaout: K. Matsuzawa
76'
⚽K. Matsuzawaassist: R. Merlen
78'
Ryan Merlen
79'
Samed Baždar
🔁C. Scottout: J. Godelaine
81'
90+3'
🔁R. Merlenout: S. Shinkawa
90'
⚽S. Bazdarassist: I. Sebaoui

Match stats — Antwerp vs St. Truiden

59%Possession41%
18Shots19
8On target7
6Corners1
0.77xG3.38

Goals against chances

Antwerp1 from 0.77 xGabout what the chances were worth
St. Truiden4 from 3.38 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antwerp 4-4-2
  • 41T. NozawaG
  • 28L. SchelfhoutD
  • 4Y. TsunashimaD
  • 20R. Van HeldenD
  • 27E. Tuypens
  • 77I. SalahM
  • 25M. FofanaM
  • 10C. ScottM
  • 24T. SomersM
  • 9M. FreyF
  • 99L. NarhF
Substitutes
  • 81N. Devalckeneer
  • 44M. BusiD
  • 17S. RendersD
  • 14X. DierckxM
  • 16L. Van GelderM
  • 11G. HairemansM
  • 33S. PorozoM
  • 29J. GodelaineF
Coach: Marvin Compper
St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 7A. MujaM
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 77O. Diouf
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaF
  • 31I. BenachourM
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 9S. BazdarF

Form going into Antwerp vs St. Truiden

Antwerp

  • D4-4Genk22 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Kortrijk15 August 2026

St. Truiden

  • D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Antwerp62131113-27
10St. Truiden62221210+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antwerp vs St. Truiden

  • 30 August 2026Antwerp 1–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 28 February 2026Antwerp 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 3 December 2025Antwerp 3–3 St. TruidenCup
  • 2 November 2025St. Truiden 1–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 24 January 2025St. Truiden 1–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 11 August 2024Antwerp 6–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Antwerp and St. Truiden

Antwerp

  • M. Frey4 goals
  • A. Valencia3 goals

St. Truiden

  • S. Baždar4 goals
  • R. Merlen3 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.