Sunderland vs Fulham Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 1-0 Fulham.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Sunderland, 30% draw, 30% Fulham — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sunderland at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Fulham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Robin RoefsG
- 12Thomas MeunierD
- 20Nordi MukieleD
- 5Daniel BallardD
- 17Reinildo MandavaD
- 34Granit XhakaM
- 27Noah SadikiM
- 32Trai HumeM
- 28Enzo Le FéeM
- 10Nilson AnguloM
- 9Brian BrobbeyF
- 18Wilson IsidorF
- 19Habib DiarraM
- 11Chris RiggM
- 14Romaine MundleF
- 31Melker EllborgG
- 13Luke O'NienM
- 15Omar AldereteD
- 7Chemsdine TalbiF
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 1Bernd LenoG
- 21Timothy CastagneD
- 5Joachim AndersenD
- 3Calvin BasseyD
- 33Antonee RobinsonD
- 16Sander BergeM
- 17Alex IwobiM
- 14Oscar BobbM
- 24Joshua KingM
- 8César PalaciosM
- 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 30Ryan SessegnonM
- 19Shea CharlesM
- 32Emile Smith RoweM
- 11KevinF
- 23Benjamin LecomteG
- 4Jorge CuencaD
- 6Harrison ReedM
- 9Rodrigo MunizF
- 35Macauley ZepaF
Form going into Sunderland vs Fulham
Sunderland
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
Fulham
- L2-3Chelsea24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Fulham
- 30 August 2026Sunderland 1–0 FulhamPremier League
- 22 February 2026Sunderland 1–3 FulhamPremier League
- 22 November 2025Fulham 1–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 8 February 2023Sunderland 2–3 FulhamFA Cup
- 28 January 2023Fulham 1–1 SunderlandFA Cup
- 27 April 2018Fulham 2–1 SunderlandChampionship
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Fulham
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Fulham
- Joshua King2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.