2 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Full time0 – 3

Final score: St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% St. Truiden, 27% draw, 30% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden0%Draw1%Union St. Gilloise99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
Kevin Mac Allister
23'
⚽L. Patrisassist: M. Biondic
Abdoulaye Sissako
47'
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
49'
Nelson Ishiwatari
54'
55'
•Kevin Mac Allister
55'
⚽K. Mac Allisterassist: B. Zeneli
🔁N. Ishiwatariout: R. Merlen
57'
🔁O. Dioufout: S. Bazdar
57'
61'
Kamiel Van de Perre
63'
⚽R. Mofokengassist: M. Biondic
🔁R. Arakiout: K. Matsuzawa
65'
65'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: D. De Roeve
65'
🔁R. Mofokengout: D. Olaru
71'
🔁M. Biondicout: S. Keita
🔁R. Vanwesemaelout: T. Hata
72'
🔁A. Mujaout: S. Shinkawa
72'
72'
🔁K. Van De Perreout: R. Schoofs
79'
🔁B. Zeneliout: R. Florucz

Match stats — St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise

50%Possession50%
6Shots12
2On target6
3Corners1
0.85xG2.49

Goals against chances

St. Truiden0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Union St. Gilloise3 from 2.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 7A. MujaM
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 77O. Diouf
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaF
  • 31I. BenachourM
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 9S. BazdarF
Union St. Gilloise 3-4-3
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 80O. KricfalusiD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 23B. ZeneliF
  • 9M. Biondic
  • 38R. MofokengF
Substitutes
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 17R. SchoofsM
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 14I. PavlicM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 39Y. HamoutaharF
  • 32S. KeitaF
Coach: David Hubert

Form going into St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise

St. Truiden

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
  • L2-4away to Omonia Nicosia27 August 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia20 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026
  • D1-1Lommel United8 August 2026

Union St. Gilloise

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026
  • D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt11 August 2026
  • W5-1away to KVC Westerlo8 August 2026
  • D3-3Bodo/Glimt4 August 2026

What these results say

  • St. Truiden scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for St. Truiden.
  • Union St. Gilloise scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Union St. Gilloise had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12St. Truiden113262222011
1Union St. Gilloise11920307+2329

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise

  • 2 May 2026St. Truiden 2–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 4 April 2026Union St. Gilloise 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 22 March 2026St. Truiden 1–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 26 October 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 2 February 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League

The full St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise record →

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise

St. Truiden

GoalsAssists

  • S. Baždar50
  • I. Sebaoui43

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

  • R. Florucz50
  • R. Mofokeng42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union St. Gilloise won 3–0 at St. Truiden. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Truiden at 43% and given a win for Union St. Gilloise 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: L. Patris 23' for Union St. Gilloise, K. Mac Allister 55' for Union St. Gilloise, R. Mofokeng 63' for Union St. Gilloise. On expected goals it finished 0.85–2.49.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.