2 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Full time0 – 3

Final score: St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% St. Truiden, 27% draw, 30% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St. Truiden at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden0%Draw1%Union St. Gilloise99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
Kevin Mac Allister
23'
⚽L. Patrisassist: M. Biondic
Abdoulaye Sissako
47'
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
49'
Nelson Ishiwatari
54'
55'
•Kevin Mac Allister
55'
⚽K. Mac Allisterassist: B. Zeneli
🔁N. Ishiwatariout: R. Merlen
57'
🔁O. Dioufout: S. Bazdar
57'
61'
Kamiel Van de Perre
63'
⚽R. Mofokengassist: M. Biondic
🔁R. Arakiout: K. Matsuzawa
65'
65'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: D. De Roeve
65'
🔁R. Mofokengout: D. Olaru
71'
🔁M. Biondicout: S. Keita
🔁R. Vanwesemaelout: T. Hata
72'
🔁A. Mujaout: S. Shinkawa
72'
72'
🔁K. Van De Perreout: R. Schoofs
79'
🔁B. Zeneliout: R. Florucz

Match stats — St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise

50%Possession50%
6Shots12
2On target6
3Corners1
0.85xG2.49

Goals against chances

St. Truiden0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Union St. Gilloise3 from 2.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 7A. MujaM
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 77O. Diouf
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaF
  • 31I. BenachourM
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 9S. BazdarF
Union St. Gilloise 3-4-3
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 80O. KricfalusiD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 23B. ZeneliF
  • 9M. Biondic
  • 38R. MofokengF
Substitutes
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 17R. SchoofsM
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 14I. PavlicM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 39Y. HamoutaharF
  • 32S. KeitaF
Coach: David Hubert

Form going into St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise

St. Truiden

  • W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026

Union St. Gilloise

  • W3-0Anderlecht30 August 2026
  • D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10St. Truiden62221210+28
1Union St. Gilloise6510193+1616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise

  • 2 September 2026St. Truiden 0–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 2 May 2026St. Truiden 2–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 4 April 2026Union St. Gilloise 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 22 March 2026St. Truiden 1–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 26 October 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 2 February 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise

St. Truiden

  • S. Baždar4 goals
  • R. Merlen3 goals3 assists

Union St. Gilloise

  • R. Florucz4 goals
  • R. Mofokeng3 goals
  • B. Zeneli2 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.