9 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Palms Sports Arena, Baku
Referee: R. Jabarov
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Neftchi Baku 0-0 Sabah FA.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Neftchi Baku, 25% draw, 39% Sabah FA — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sabah FA at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Neftchi Baku5%Draw90%Sabah FA5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
Du Queiroz
62'
🔁Du Queirozout: A. Isayev
62'
🔁A. Khaybulaevout: U. Rakhmonaliyev
62'
🔁Carlos Eduardoout: J. Mickels
🔁A. Akinyemiout: B. Sambou
65'
🔁A. Skribekout: E. Safarov
65'
77'
V. Simic
F. Sacko
77'
🔁Gustavo Klismahnout: F. Vargas
77'
🔁Breno Almeidaout: D. Savic
77'
82'
🔁V. Simicout: O. Mbina
L. Tupta
89'
90+2'
A. McCarthy

Form going into Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA

Neftchi Baku

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk30 July 2026
  • L2-4Dinamo Minsk22 July 2026

Sabah FA

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Manchester United10 September 2026
  • W5-2Hapoel Beer Sheva25 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva19 August 2026
  • W4-0Aarhus11 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Aarhus5 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Sabah FA had three goals or more.
  • Sabah FA scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sabah FA conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Neftchi Baku117312611+1524
3Sabah FA10631226+1621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FA

  • 17 May 2026Sabah FA 1–2 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 8 December 2025Sabah FA 2–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 14 September 2025Neftchi Baku 0–0 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
  • 24 May 2025Sabah FA 1–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 23 April 2025Sabah FA 1–1 Neftchi BakuCup
  • 2 April 2025Neftchi Baku 1–2 Sabah FACup

Leading scorers: Neftchi Baku and Sabah FA

Neftchi Baku

No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.

Sabah FA

GoalsAssists

  • U. Rahmonaliyev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Neftchi Baku and Sabah FA drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabah FA at 39% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Neftchi Baku a 14.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 19.5% after a win, 13.8% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.8%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

For Sabah FA the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 67.1% going in: 75.3% after a win, 66.6% after a draw, 59.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 66.6%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Neftchi Baku v Sabah FA has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 36% / 25% / 39%: the biggest move is Sabah FA's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Neftchi Baku win36%=
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Sabah FA win39%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.