Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Arda Kardzhali 1-1 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Arda Kardzhali, 24% draw, 19% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Arda Kardzhali at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Line-ups
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 21V. VelevD
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
- 6V. PopovD
- 80L. KotevM
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 99B. KaragarenF
- 91S. IvanovF
- 10S. KovachevF
- 16P. BachevF
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 11A. KabovF
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 9G. NikolovF
- 18S. VasilevD
- 39A. VutovM
- 31D. HristovG
- 50E. TombakD
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 37V. KerchevD
- 26João BandaróD
- 29B. BeyhanM
- 99I. BounaasM
- 7M. BarandasF
- 11M. AchiM
- 8A. DonchevF
- 19G. LazarovF
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 34K. MihaylovM
- 9J. PadillaF
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 17I. TasevF
- 14A. TodorovD
- 81K. TomovG
- 93G. VentsislavovD
- 23M. BanevM
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv24 August 2026
- W3-1Lokomotiv Sofia17 August 2026
Cherno More Varna
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
- W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
What these results say
- Arda Kardzhali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 21 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
- 25 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 3 May 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 4 March 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 12 December 2025Cherno More Varna 0–3 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 22 September 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
GoalsAssists
- B. Karagaren11
- S. Kovachev10
- A. Kabov10
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arda Kardzhali and Cherno More Varna drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Arda Kardzhali at 57% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: georgi lazarov 70' for Cherno More Varna, Antonio Vutov 74' for Arda Kardzhali. Sent off: Zhivko Atanasov (Cherno More Varna) 87'.
How the call on Arda Kardzhali v Cherno More Varna has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Arda Kardzhali's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Arda Kardzhali win57%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Cherno More Varna win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.