Atlas vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 1-1 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atlas, 29% draw, 35% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atlas at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 19A. FriasD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 44J. SanchezD
- 3J. SanchezM
- 18E. MontielM
- 15P. RamirezM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 11DukF
- 10L. EstevesF
- 9F. MonzonF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 20K. ZenonM
- 6E. ZaldivarM
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 192J. SerratoM
- 58A. GonzalezF
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LopezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 34A. AzuajeD
- 77A. AnguloD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 14L. HerreraM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 35P. LaraG
- 5R. DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 19J. RivasD
- 24T. LeoneD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 15I. LunaM
- 20S. TrigosM
- 22A. MedinaF
Form going into Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Atlas.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
- 8 February 2026Atlas 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 31 August 2025Pumas UNAM 1–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 26 January 2025Pumas UNAM 0–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Atlas 2–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 15 February 2024Atlas 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 5 November 2023Pumas UNAM 3–0 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Pumas UNAM
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas and Pumas UNAM drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlas at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ángel Azuaje 23' for Pumas UNAM, Luís André Leite Esteves 45+6' for Atlas. Sent off: Adalberto Carrasquilla (Pumas UNAM) 87'.
How the call on Atlas v Pumas UNAM has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Pumas UNAM's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Atlas win36%▼ −5
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Pumas UNAM win35%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.