Regular Season - 6 · 16 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 0-2 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lokomotiv Sofia, 27% draw, 47% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.08, CSKA Sofia 1.89.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

57%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-2 10%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Sofia at 47% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv Sofia0%Draw1%CSKA Sofia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
⚽James Eto'o
46'
🔁Ioannis Pittasout: Stefano Sensi
🔁caruzo caueout: Mark Emilio Papazov
59'
🔁Mohamed Medfaiout: Adil Taoui
59'
64'
🔁Santiago Godoyout: Joel·Zwarts
Mark Emilio Papazov
67'
72'
🔁Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereiraout: mohamed brahimi
72'
🔁Barry Cotterout: David Samuel Custódio Lima
🔁Antonio Miguel Tavares Eiro de Carvalhoout: Krasimir Miloshev
74'
🔁Ante Aralicaout: Georgi Minchev
74'
Georgi Minchev
77'
82'
🔁Bruno Jordãoout: Jean-Philippe Gbamin
84'
⚽Joel·Zwarts
🔁Dimitar Kostadinovout: kristian chachev
90'

Match stats — Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

47%Possession53%
12Shots17
4On target8
3Corners4

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. VelichkovG
  • 14A. LyaskovD
  • 91R. BidoungaD
  • 3K. KostovD
  • 6EirôD
  • 31K. StanoevM
  • 20D. KostadinovM
  • 7S. DelevF
  • 16M. MedfaiM
  • 77Caue CaruzoF
  • 29A. AralicaF
Substitutes
  • 8I. YordanovM
  • 21K. ChachevM
  • 22R. DaskalovD
  • 5E. DostM
  • 24A. LyubenovG
  • 26K. MiloshevM
  • 9G. MinchevF
  • 42N. NeychevM
  • 17M. PapazovF
Coach: L. Penev
CSKA Sofia 4-4-2
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 37B. CotterD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 17Á. MartinoD
  • 99J. Eto'oM
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 38Léo PereiraF
  • 9S. GodoyF
  • 28I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 5J. GbaminM
  • 67C. ItuM
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 2PastorD
  • 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 94I. Solet BomawokoM
  • 19A. YordanovM
Coach: Daniel Morales

Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia

  • D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
  • L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026

CSKA Sofia

  • W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
  • W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
  • W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Lokomotiv Sofia90451018-84
2CSKA Sofia9720236+1723

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

  • 8 March 2026CSKA Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 13 December 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv SofiaCup
  • 27 September 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 2 April 2025CSKA Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 16 September 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 30 March 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.08 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.89 for CSKA Sofia; the game produced 0 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: James Eto'o 38' (CSKA Sofia), Joel·Zwarts 84' (CSKA Sofia).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.89 for CSKA Sofia. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.38 for CSKA Sofia.