Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 0-3 Botev Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Septemvri Sofia, 26% draw, 39% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Botev Plovdiv at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Line-ups
- 12V. IvanovG
- 8B. PenchevM
- 26V. OzornwaforD
- 4M. HristovD
- 13K. ÖnaşçıM
- 5Y. BaurenskiM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 29F. HerardF
- 33G. IvanovM
- 18Pedro IgorF
- 7E. RibeiroF
- 24Z. AtanasovM
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 11A. DzhamovF
- 15P. GospodinovD
- 10N. IlievM
- 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
- 16V. MihaylovM
- 1A. RadkovG
- 23B. StoichkovF
- 29D. NaumovG
- 82V. MendesD
- 87S. PetrovD
- 4N. SoldoD
- 27B. HeinD
- 10A. ChandarovM
- 77Lucas AraújoM
- 90S. KaluF
- 16V. VidolovM
- 19Mauro RodriguesF
- 7Alberto SalidoM
- 1H. SlavkovG
- 11S. ShopovM
- 22M. SengerD
- 17G. MilanovM
- 66C. MeottiF
- 30Franklin MascoteF
- 15B. KostovD
- 28Henrique JocúM
- 88W. ChimezieF
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
- W1-0CSKA 194823 August 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna17 August 2026
Botev Plovdiv
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
- L1-3Levski Sofia30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Vratsa24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ludogorets15 August 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 11 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
- 3 March 2026Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 21 September 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–3 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 12 April 2025Botev Plovdiv 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 4 November 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 10 March 2023Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and Botev Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Plovdiv won 3–0 at Septemvri Sofia. The model had made a win for Botev Plovdiv its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: alberto tajero saido 26' for Botev Plovdiv, Samuel Kalu 54' for Botev Plovdiv, Samuel Kalu 75' for Botev Plovdiv. Sent off: edney ribeiro (Septemvri Sofia) 49'.
How the call on Septemvri Sofia v Botev Plovdiv has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is Botev Plovdiv's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Septemvri Sofia win35%=
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Botev Plovdiv win39%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.