Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Arges Pitesti 1-1 Farul Constanta.
Before kick-off the model made it 69% Arges Pitesti, 17% draw, 14% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arges Pitesti at 69% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta
Line-ups
- 34Cătălin CăbuzG
- 26Dorinel OanceaD
- 6Mario TudoseD
- 3Leard SadriuD
- 2Costinel TofanD
- 16Ionuț RădescuM
- 27Rober SierraM
- 22Vadim RațăM
- 92Taylor LuvamboF
- 11Yanis PîrvuF
- 99Robert MoldoveanuF
- 23Florin BorțaD
- 96Silviu BalaureM
- 20Patrick DulceaM
- 69Oluwatobiloba AlagbeD
- 19Claudiu MicovschiF
- 31Matteo ȘerbanG
- 33Luca CrăciunG
- 4Evagoras AntoniouD
- 15Guilherme GaruttiD
- 12Rafael MunteanuG
- 24Sofyane BouzamouchaD
- 6Victor DicanD
- 4Gustavo MarinsD
- 22Dan SîrbuM
- 23Tony NjikéM
- 70Matteo AhlinviM
- 3Valentin ȚicuM
- 10Eddy SylvestreF
- 19Iustin DoicaruF
- 20Eduard RadaslavescuF
- 18Luca BanuM
- 25Jakub VojtušF
- 17Ionuț LarieD
- 80Nicolas PopescuM
- 71Răzvan TănasăM
- 1Alexandru BuzbuchiG
- 33João FerreiraD
- 2David MafteiD
- 13Ionuț CercelD
Form going into Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta
Arges Pitesti
- W1-0away to Universitatea Craiova9 August 2026
- W1-0Csikszereda31 July 2026
- W1-0Petrolul Ploiesti24 July 2026
- L0-2away to FCSB17 July 2026
Farul Constanta
- W3-2Csikszereda8 August 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB3 August 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Arges Pitesti | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Farul Constanta | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta
- 14 August 2026Arges Pitesti 1–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 22 February 2026Arges Pitesti 1–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 17 October 2025Farul Constanta 0–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 12 February 2023Arges Pitesti 0–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 10 January 2023Farul Constanta 4–1 Arges PitestiFriendlies Clubs
- 11 September 2022Farul Constanta 3–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Arges Pitesti and Farul Constanta
Arges Pitesti
- R. Moldoveanu3 goals
Farul Constanta
- E. Rădăslăvescu5 goals2 assists
- M. Ahlinvi3 goals1 assists
- Iustin Doicaru3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.