AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: AS Roma 4-0 Slovan Bratislava.
Before kick-off the model made it 82% AS Roma, 12% draw, 6% Slovan Bratislava — fair odds of 1.22, 8.33 and 16.67.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 82%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95P. GolliniG
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 22HermosoD
- 20N. MolinaM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 61N. PisilliM
- 43WesleyM
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 7L. PellegriniM
- 14D. MalenF
- 5E. NdickaD
- 2D. RenschD
- 18M. SouléF
- 32D. VásquezG
- 9S. CastroF
- 4B. CristanteM
- 70G. De MarziG
- 63Alessandro Di NunzioM
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 71D. TakáčG
- 28C. BlackmanD
- 12K. BajričD
- 15S. MarkovićD
- 57Sandro CruzD
- 3P. PokornýM
- 11T. BarseghyanM
- 5R. IbrahimM
- 8A. GajdošM
- 21Suleiman CamaraM
- 10N. MarcelliF
- 7L. HofstadterM
- 77D. IgnatenkoM
- 2S. KozlovskýD
- 70Cristian Jesús MartínezM
- 88D. MatsuokaM
- 20A. MustafićM
- 1A. PopovićG
- 26R. TománekD
- 6K. WimmerD
Form going into AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
AS Roma
UEFA Champions League
- L3-4Real Madrid14 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
Slovan Bratislava
UEFA Champions League
- L0-3VfB Stuttgart14 October 2026
- L1-6away to Paris Saint Germain9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | AS Roma | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -16 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Slovan Bratislava
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen42
Slovan Bratislava
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AS Roma beat Slovan Bratislava 4–0. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 82%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Mario Hermoso 21' for AS Roma, Nahuel Molina 39' for AS Roma, Niccolò Pisilli 52' for AS Roma, Donyell Malen (penalty) 58' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 3.19–0.04.
How the call on AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 75% / 16% / 9% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 82% / 12% / 6%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- AS Roma win82%▲ +7
- Draw12%▼ −4
- Slovan Bratislava win6%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often AS Roma's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Slovan Bratislava's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.