20 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Fenerbahçe, 24% draw, 34% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fenerbahçe at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fenerbahçe95%Draw5%Slavia Praha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Oğuz Aydınassist: Milan Škriniar
4'
⚽Mason Greenwoodassist: Nélson Semedo
11'
15'
⚽Lukáš Provod
🔁Nathan Akéout: Kojo Peprah Oppong
21'
N'Golo Kanté
31'
Milan Škriniar
49'
59'
Jindřich Trpišovský
60'
Wiktor Nowak
62'
🔁Danijel Sturmout: Mojmír Chytil
62'
🔁Tomáš Vlčekout: Samuel Isife
🔁Vedat Muriqiout: Romelu Lukaku
63'
🔁Oğuz Aydınout: Nene Dorgeles
63'
75'
🔁Oskar Kubiakout: Toumani Diakite
🔁Mason Greenwoodout: İrfan Can Kahveci
82'
🔁Kerem Aktürkoğluout: Ismail Yüksek
82'
85'
🔁Lukáš Provodout: Michal Sadílek
85'
🔁Mubarak Suleimanout: Pavel Kacor
Ismail Yüksek
88'
90'
⚽Pavel Kacorassist: Emmanuel Ayaosi

Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

49%Possession51%
15Shots15
4On target4
3Corners5
1.12xG1.54

Goals against chances

Fenerbahçe2 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
Slavia Praha2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27Nélson SemedoD
  • 37M. ŠkriniarD
  • 15N. AkéD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 91N. KantéM
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 70O. AydınM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 7K. AktürkoğluM
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 34M. GünokG
  • 17İ. KahveciM
  • 9R. LukakuF
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 77O. MimovićD
  • 45N. DorgelesF
  • 21K. Peprah OppongD
  • 5İ. YüksekM
Coach: İ. Kartal
Slavia Praha 3-4-2-1
  • 35J. MarkovičG
  • 27T. VlčekD
  • 4D. ZimaD
  • 6A. N'GuessanD
  • 15M. E. SuleimanM
  • 16D. MosesM
  • 30W. NowakM
  • 8O. KubiakM
  • 20E. AyaosiM
  • 10D. ŠturmM
  • 17L. ProvodF
Substitutes
  • 13M. ChytilF
  • 47D. BarcotD
  • 32Pavel KacorM
  • 42M. KonečnýD
  • 53Matěj KotrbaF
  • 60Petr PotměšilF
  • 40Adam RezekG
  • 23M. SadílekM
  • 22T. DiakitéM
Coach: J. Trpišovský

Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

Fenerbahçe

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-6away to Aston Villa14 October 2026
  • D1-1AS Roma10 September 2026

Slavia Praha

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-2away to Sabah FA13 October 2026
  • L2-3Lens10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Fenerbahçe4121611-55
34Slavia Praha401359-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha

  • 28 November 2024Slavia Praha 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League
  • 24 February 2022Slavia Praha 3–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 17 February 2022Fenerbahçe 2–3 Slavia PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Slavia Praha

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • M. Greenwood42
  • Talisca40

Slavia Praha

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fenerbahçe and Slavia Praha drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Fenerbahçe at 42% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Oğuz Aydın 4' for Fenerbahçe, Mason Greenwood 11' for Fenerbahçe, Lukáš Provod 15' for Slavia Praha, Pavel Kacor 90' for Slavia Praha. On expected goals it finished 1.12–1.54.

How the call on Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 24% / 34%: the biggest move is Fenerbahçe's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Fenerbahçe win42%▲ +4
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Slavia Praha win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.