FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% FC Porto, 21% draw, 18% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 12Z. SanusiD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 9SamuF
- 77O. PietuszewskiF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 18N. PérezD
- 17Borja SainzF
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 24AndorinhaG
- 19André SilvaF
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 18F. KostićD
- 24K. SanoM
- 17Mauro JúniorM
- 19E. BajraktarevicM
- 21S. MijnansM
- 5I. PerišićM
- 20G. TilF
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
- 35A. SantosM
- 1N. OlijG
- 4A. ObispoD
- 27D. ManF
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 31N. FernandezM
- 42S. CornecionM
- 23M. HansenF
Form going into FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
FC Porto
UEFA Champions League
- L2-3away to Real Betis14 October 2026
- L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League
- L0-1away to RB Leipzig13 October 2026
- D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
PSV Eindhoven won 1–0 at FC Porto. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Porto at 61% and given a win for PSV Eindhoven 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: Guus Til 57' for PSV Eindhoven. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.97.
How the call on FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 61% / 21% / 18%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- FC Porto win61%▲ +6
- Draw21%▼ −3
- PSV Eindhoven win18%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.