Liverpool vs Villarreal UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Liverpool, 23% draw, 26% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 73R. NgumohaM
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 18C. GakpoM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 29B. BarcolaF
- 44L. ChambersD
- 76J. DannsF
- 2J. GomezD
- 9A. IsakF
- 6M. KerkezD
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 53J. McConnellM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 24N. SalibaM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 5A. DiattaM
- 27N. El JmiliF
- 8J. FoythD
- 3A. FreemanD
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 16C. MaciaM
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
Form going into Liverpool vs Villarreal
Liverpool
UEFA Champions League
- W6-3away to Lask Linz14 October 2026
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
Villarreal
UEFA Champions League
- W3-1Napoli13 October 2026
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Villarreal
- 3 May 2022Villarreal 2–3 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
- 27 April 2022Liverpool 2–0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- 5 May 2016Liverpool 3–0 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
- 28 April 2016Villarreal 1–0 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League
The result against the call
Liverpool beat Villarreal 4–3. The model had made a win for Liverpool its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Georges Mikautadze 4' for Villarreal, Sergi Cardona Bermúdez 29' for Villarreal, Alexis Mac Allister 36' for Liverpool, Ronald Araujo 45+2' for Liverpool, Alexis Mac Allister 65' for Liverpool, Florian Wirtz 68' for Liverpool, Tani Oluwaseyi 87' for Villarreal. On expected goals it finished 2.41–1.59.
How the call on Liverpool v Villarreal has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 49% / 24% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 51% / 23% / 26%: the biggest move is Liverpool's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Liverpool win51%▲ +2
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Villarreal win26%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.