20 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Bank Respublika Arena
Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sabah FA 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Sabah FA, 27% draw, 43% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Borussia Dortmund at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sabah FA0%Draw4%Borussia Dortmund96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Serhou Guirassy
Steve Solvet
22'
⚽Aden McCarthyassist: Tymoteusz Puchacz
39'
Ivan Lepinjica
49'
53'
⚽Serhou Guirassyassist: Joey Veerman
Aden McCarthy
57'
🔁Du Queirozout: Aleksey Isaev
65'
🔁Kaheem Parrisout: Patrick Orphe Mbina
65'
71'
🔁Carney Chukwuemekaout: Marcel Sabitzer
71'
🔁Felix Nmechaout: Jobe Bellingham
72'
🔁Ramy Bensebainiout: Kouakou Joane Gadou
77'
🔁Daniel Svenssonout: Maximilian Beier
🔁Umarali Rakhmonalievout: Abdulakh khaybulaev
81'
🔁Joy Lance Mickelsout: Christian Nwachukwu
81'
Akim Zedadka
89'
90+1'
🔁Fábio Silvaout: Ethan Nwaneri

Match stats — Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund

45%Possession55%
13Shots22
4On target9
4Corners9
1.51xG3.74

Goals against chances

Sabah FA1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth
Borussia Dortmund2 from 3.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sabah FA 4-2-3-1
  • 92S. PokatilovG
  • 80A. ZedadkaD
  • 3S. SolvetD
  • 4A. McCarthyD
  • 27T. PuchaczD
  • 7U. RahmonaliyevM
  • 13I. LepinjicaM
  • 11K. ParrisM
  • 37Du QueirozM
  • 21V. SimićM
  • 20J. MickelsF
Substitutes
  • 88Rodrigo FernandesM
  • 10A. IsaevM
  • 5R. DaşdəmirovD
  • 33Erivaldo AlmeidaD
  • 6A. XaybulayevM
  • 99P. MbinaF
  • 94R. MirzəmmədovG
  • 17T. MütəllimovD
  • 8C. NwachukwuF
Coach: V. Dambrauskas
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 4N. SchlotterbeckD
  • 5R. BensebaïniD
  • 26J. RyersonM
  • 8F. NmechaM
  • 25J. VeermanM
  • 24D. SvenssonM
  • 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  • 21Fábio SilvaM
  • 9S. GuirassyF
Substitutes
  • 14M. BeierF
  • 7J. BellinghamM
  • 30P. DrewesG
  • 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
  • 40S. InacioF
  • 39F. ManéD
  • 33A. MeyerG
  • 18E. NwaneriM
  • 49L. ReggianiD
Coach: N. Kovač

Form going into Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund

Sabah FA

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-0Slavia Praha13 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Manchester United10 September 2026

Borussia Dortmund

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
  • W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
31Sabah FA4103410-63
12Borussia Dortmund430175+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund

Sabah FA

GoalsAssists

  • J. Mickels41

Borussia Dortmund

GoalsAssists

  • S. Guirassy40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Borussia Dortmund won 2–1 at Sabah FA. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Serhou Guirassy 10' for Borussia Dortmund, Aden McCarthy 39' for Sabah FA, Serhou Guirassy 53' for Borussia Dortmund. On expected goals it finished 1.51–3.74.

How the call on Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Sabah FA's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sabah FA win30%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Borussia Dortmund win43%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.