Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Sabah FA 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Sabah FA, 27% draw, 43% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Dortmund at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 92S. PokatilovG
- 80A. ZedadkaD
- 3S. SolvetD
- 4A. McCarthyD
- 27T. PuchaczD
- 7U. RahmonaliyevM
- 13I. LepinjicaM
- 11K. ParrisM
- 37Du QueirozM
- 21V. SimićM
- 20J. MickelsF
- 88Rodrigo FernandesM
- 10A. IsaevM
- 5R. DaşdəmirovD
- 33Erivaldo AlmeidaD
- 6A. XaybulayevM
- 99P. MbinaF
- 94R. MirzəmmədovG
- 17T. MütəllimovD
- 8C. NwachukwuF
- 1G. KobelG
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 21Fábio SilvaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 14M. BeierF
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 30P. DrewesG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 40S. InacioF
- 39F. ManéD
- 33A. MeyerG
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 49L. ReggianiD
Form going into Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund
Sabah FA
UEFA Champions League
- W2-0Slavia Praha13 October 2026
- L0-4away to Manchester United10 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt14 October 2026
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Borussia Dortmund
Sabah FA
GoalsAssists
- J. Mickels41
Borussia Dortmund
GoalsAssists
- S. Guirassy40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund won 2–1 at Sabah FA. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Serhou Guirassy 10' for Borussia Dortmund, Aden McCarthy 39' for Sabah FA, Serhou Guirassy 53' for Borussia Dortmund. On expected goals it finished 1.51–3.74.
How the call on Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Sabah FA's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sabah FA win30%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- Borussia Dortmund win43%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Sabah FA's most recent league matches and Borussia Dortmund's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.