20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Dunfermline vs Partick Championship prediction & result

East End Park, Dunfermline
Referee: P. Stuart
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Dunfermline 1-1 Partick.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dunfermline, 28% draw, 28% Partick — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunfermline at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunfermline4%Draw93%Partick3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽T. Wattassist: A. Fitzpatrick
⚽A. Todassist: O. Adams
41'
46'
🔁C. Loughreyout: D. O'Reilly
58'
🔁G. Mackay-Stevenout: S. Drozd
62'
L. Ashcroft
64'
🔁B. Stanwayout: A. Samuel
🔁K. Brayout: O. Thomas
68'
🔁R. MacLeodout: J. Cooper
68'
79'
🔁T. Wattout: E. Henderson
79'
🔁O. Smythout: R. Crawford
D. Lobban
82'
🔁A. Amadeout: C. Morrison
84'
🔁O. Adamsout: C. Gilmour
84'
🔁A. Oyirwothout: O. Shaw
90'

Line-ups

Dunfermline
  • 1A. Oxborough
  • 24D. Lobban
  • 25A. Donnelly
  • 6N. Abdulai
  • 47R. Fraser
  • 22K. Bray
  • 19A. Oyirwoth
  • 14A. Amade
  • 16R. MacLeod
  • 99O. Adams
  • 26A. Tod
Substitutes
  • 12M. Dibaga
  • 3J. Tod
  • 7C. Morrison
  • 8C. Gilmour
  • 10O. Shaw
  • 11S. Kearney
  • 17O. Thomas
  • 18K. Corbally
  • 33J. Cooper
Coach: Neil Lennon
Partick
  • 1L. Budinauckas
  • 24B. McPherson
  • 5L. Ashcroft
  • 22C. Loughrey
  • 3P. Reading
  • 8O. Smyth
  • 6B. Dempsey
  • 11G. Mackay-Steven
  • 26B. Stanway
  • 21A. Fitzpatrick
  • 32T. Watt
Substitutes
  • 12L. McFarlane
  • 2C. Logan
  • 7S. Drozd
  • 9A. Samuel
  • 10E. Henderson
  • 14R. Crawford
  • 17E. Ingram
  • 20D. O'Reilly
  • 64T. Letsosa

Form going into Dunfermline vs Partick

Dunfermline

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Livingston17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ayr Utd10 October 2026

Partick

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Ayr Utd16 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Livingston10 October 2026
  • W3-0Arbroath3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Dunfermline14671157+825
1Partick15942219+1231

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunfermline vs Partick

  • 15 May 2026Partick 2–1 DunfermlinePremiership
  • 12 May 2026Dunfermline 1–1 PartickPremiership
  • 11 April 2026Partick 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 24 February 2026Dunfermline 2–2 PartickChampionship
  • 25 November 2025Partick 1–0 DunfermlineChampionship

The result against the call

Dunfermline and Partick drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunfermline at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: T. Watt 13' for Partick, A. Tod 41' for Dunfermline.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dunfermline a 68.0% chance to finish in the top four: 73.2% after a win, 64.9% after a draw, 60.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 64.9%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For Partick the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 28.8% going in: 37.1% after a win, 28.3% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.3%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dunfermline v Partick has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Dunfermline's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Dunfermline win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Partick win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.