Ascoli vs Carrarese Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Carrarese.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Ascoli, 26% draw, 25% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ascoli at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ascoli vs Carrarese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. VitaleG
- 62T. MilaneseD
- 33N. RizzoD
- 7A. SilipoM
- 8G. CorradiniM
- 4S. DamianiM
- 11S. PerciunM
- 19A. GuiebreM
- 9M. A. ChakirF
- 15S. D'UffiziF
- 45G. M. CrespiG
- 3M. NicolettiD
- 32F. GattoniD
- 21G. De PieriM
- 18L. Lo ScalzoM
- 27M. RicciM
- 13G. AcamporaM
- 14A. OliveriM
- 99M. BrunoriF
- 12G. GarofaniG
- 13F. RuggeriD
- 6F. OlianaD
- 41L. RomaniD
- 7N. BelloniM
- 77G. ParlantiM
- 18N. SchiaviM
- 33F. RealeM
- 73J. RouhiM
- 11M. CisseF
- 9F. AbiusoF
- 19V. FiorilloG
- 1S. PizzignaccoG
- 78T. GuercioD
- 20G. EstevesD
- 28J. MartiniM
- 17L. TopalovicM
- 8Y. KhafiM
- 66P. PinelliM
- 72F. MelegoniM
Form going into Ascoli vs Carrarese
Ascoli
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026
Carrarese
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Mantova22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ascoli | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 20 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Ascoli and Carrarese
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo41
- G. Gori32
Carrarese
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ascoli and Carrarese drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ascoli at 49% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: F. Abiuso 51' for Carrarese, G. Gori 82' for Ascoli. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.81.