Genoa vs Como Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Genoa 1-4 Como.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Genoa, 28% draw, 39% Como — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Como at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genoa vs Como
Line-ups
- 1J. BijlowG
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 77M. EllertssonD
- 20S. SabelliM
- 97D. SowM
- 22J. VásquezM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 29L. ColomboF
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 92S. El ShaarawyF
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 9VítinhaF
- 74M. DoucoureD
- 3K. EhizibueD
- 11E. MeichtryM
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 2M. MitajD
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 99T. ChalobahD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 5M. PerroneM
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10N. PazM
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 6Luis MillaM
- 14S. RicciM
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 22M. VigoritoG
- 16KaikiD
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 15A. LahdoM
- 2M. KempfD
Form going into Genoa vs Como
Genoa
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
- L0-2Napoli22 August 2026
Como
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Genoa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 3 | Como | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Como
- 4 September 2026Genoa 1–4 ComoSerie A
- 26 April 2026Genoa 0–2 ComoSerie A
- 15 September 2025Como 1–1 GenoaSerie A
- 27 April 2025Como 1–0 GenoaSerie A
- 7 November 2024Genoa 1–1 ComoSerie A
- 10 April 2023como 2–2 GenoaSerie B
Leading scorers: Genoa and Como
Genoa
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Como
- M. Baturina2 goals1 assists
- Assane Diao2 goals1 assists
- T. Douvikas2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.